HMVhmantovani
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Stage 8 · After Semi-Finals

Knockout Stage Forecast

Everything through the Semi-Finals is real. Only the third-place match and the Final remain — predicted across 20,000 simulations.

Match predictions

Mexico
Mexico
Elo 1913
06-11
2 – 0
South Africa
Elo 1559
South Africa
Pre-match prediction
77%
17%
Win 77%Draw 17%Win 6%
Likely2-0
xG2.31–0.52
O 2.553%
BTTS37%
South Korea
South Korea
Elo 1723
06-11
2 – 1
Czech Republic
Elo 1680
Czech Republic
Pre-match prediction
39%
29%
32%
Win 39%Draw 29%Win 32%
Likely1-1
xG1.31–1.17
O 2.545%
BTTS51%
Canada
Canada
Elo 1734
06-12
1 – 1
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Elo 1605
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Pre-match prediction
59%
26%
15%
Win 59%Draw 26%Win 15%
Likely1-0
xG1.62–0.71
O 2.541%
BTTS41%
Qatar
Qatar
Elo 1411
06-13
1 – 1
Switzerland
Elo 1955
Switzerland
Pre-match prediction
90%
Win 2%Draw 8%Win 90%
Likely0-3
xG0.45–3.35
O 2.573%
BTTS35%
Brazil
Brazil
Elo 1992
06-13
1 – 1
Morocco
Elo 1925
Morocco
Pre-match prediction
37%
30%
32%
Win 37%Draw 30%Win 32%
Likely1-1
xG1.15–1.05
O 2.538%
BTTS45%
Haiti
Haiti
Elo 1517
06-13
0 – 1
Scotland
Elo 1745
Scotland
Pre-match prediction
15%
22%
63%
Win 15%Draw 22%Win 63%
Likely0-2
xG0.83–1.96
O 2.553%
BTTS49%
United States
United States
Elo 1747
06-12
4 – 1
Paraguay
Elo 1843
Paraguay
Pre-match prediction
32%
28%
39%
Win 32%Draw 28%Win 39%
Likely1-1
xG1.18–1.34
O 2.546%
BTTS52%
Australia
Australia
Elo 1765
06-13
2 – 0
Turkey
Elo 1852
Turkey
Pre-match prediction
28%
29%
43%
Win 28%Draw 29%Win 43%
Likely1-1
xG1.02–1.33
O 2.542%
BTTS48%
Germany
Germany
Elo 1877
06-14
7 – 1
Curaçao
Elo 1438
Curaçao
Pre-match prediction
86%
Win 86%Draw 10%Win 4%
Likely2-0
xG3.24–0.52
O 2.570%
BTTS39%
Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast
Elo 1728
06-14
1 – 0
Ecuador
Elo 1870
Ecuador
Pre-match prediction
21%
34%
46%
Win 21%Draw 34%Win 46%
Likely0-0
xG0.71–1.19
O 2.530%
BTTS36%
Netherlands
Netherlands
Elo 1942
06-14
2 – 2
Japan
Elo 1888
Japan
Pre-match prediction
35%
31%
34%
Win 35%Draw 31%Win 34%
Likely1-1
xG1.11–1.07
O 2.537%
BTTS44%
Sweden
Sweden
Elo 1732
06-14
5 – 1
Tunisia
Elo 1562
Tunisia
Pre-match prediction
52%
26%
22%
Win 52%Draw 26%Win 22%
Likely1-1
xG1.63–0.98
O 2.548%
BTTS51%
Belgium
Belgium
Elo 1947
06-15
1 – 1
Egypt
Elo 1771
Egypt
Pre-match prediction
54%
27%
18%
Win 54%Draw 27%Win 18%
Likely1-0
xG1.52–0.78
O 2.540%
BTTS43%
Iran
Iran
Elo 1764
06-15
2 – 2
New Zealand
Elo 1534
New Zealand
Pre-match prediction
62%
24%
14%
Win 62%Draw 24%Win 14%
Likely1-0
xG1.73–0.7
O 2.544%
BTTS42%
Spain
Spain
Elo 2232
06-15
0 – 0
Cape Verde
Elo 1620
Cape Verde
Pre-match prediction
91%
Win 91%Draw 7%Win 2%
Likely3-0
xG3.35–0.43
O 2.573%
BTTS34%
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Elo 1595
06-15
1 – 1
Uruguay
Elo 1841
Uruguay
Pre-match prediction
14%
27%
58%
Win 14%Draw 27%Win 58%
Likely0-1
xG0.64–1.55
O 2.537%
BTTS38%
France
France
Elo 2124
06-16
3 – 1
Senegal
Elo 1815
Senegal
Pre-match prediction
60%
23%
17%
Win 60%Draw 23%Win 17%
Likely1-0
xG1.84–0.84
O 2.550%
BTTS47%
Iraq
Iraq
Elo 1561
06-16
1 – 4
Norway
Elo 1952
Norway
Pre-match prediction
18%
75%
Win 7%Draw 18%Win 75%
Likely0-2
xG0.54–2.18
O 2.551%
BTTS37%
Argentina
Argentina
Elo 2204
06-16
3 – 0
Algeria
Elo 1756
Algeria
Pre-match prediction
69%
22%
Win 69%Draw 22%Win 9%
Likely1-0
xG1.97–0.51
O 2.544%
BTTS33%
Austria
Austria
Elo 1821
06-16
3 – 1
Jordan
Elo 1628
Jordan
Pre-match prediction
61%
24%
15%
Win 61%Draw 24%Win 15%
Likely1-0
xG1.81–0.79
O 2.548%
BTTS46%
Portugal
Portugal
Elo 1994
06-17
1 – 1
DR Congo
Elo 1705
DR Congo
Pre-match prediction
60%
26%
14%
Win 60%Draw 26%Win 14%
Likely1-0
xG1.64–0.63
O 2.539%
BTTS38%
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan
Elo 1631
06-17
1 – 3
Colombia
Elo 1973
Colombia
Pre-match prediction
21%
68%
Win 11%Draw 21%Win 68%
Likely0-2
xG0.64–1.96
O 2.548%
BTTS41%
England
England
Elo 2074
06-17
4 – 2
Croatia
Elo 1881
Croatia
Pre-match prediction
54%
28%
19%
Win 54%Draw 28%Win 19%
Likely1-0
xG1.5–0.78
O 2.540%
BTTS42%
Ghana
Ghana
Elo 1570
06-17
1 – 0
Panama
Elo 1659
Panama
Pre-match prediction
32%
29%
39%
Win 32%Draw 29%Win 39%
Likely1-1
xG1.13–1.28
O 2.543%
BTTS49%

Projected final standings

Expected points and qualification odds across 20,000 simulations.

Top 2 — advance directlyBest 8 third-placed — wildcard

Group A

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
MexicoMexico
9.0100%
2
South AfricaSouth Africa
4.0100%
3
South KoreaSouth Korea
3.00%
4
Czech RepublicCzech Republic
1.00%

Group B

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
SwitzerlandSwitzerland
7.0100%
2
CanadaCanada
4.0100%
3
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina
4.0100%
4
QatarQatar
1.00%

Group C

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
BrazilBrazil
7.0100%
2
MoroccoMorocco
7.0100%
3
ScotlandScotland
3.00%
4
HaitiHaiti
0.00%

Group D

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
United StatesUnited States
6.0100%
2
AustraliaAustralia
4.0100%
3
ParaguayParaguay
4.0100%
4
TurkeyTurkey
3.00%

Group E

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
GermanyGermany
6.0100%
2
Ivory CoastIvory Coast
6.0100%
3
EcuadorEcuador
4.0100%
4
CuraçaoCuraçao
1.00%

Group F

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
NetherlandsNetherlands
7.0100%
2
JapanJapan
5.0100%
3
SwedenSweden
4.0100%
4
TunisiaTunisia
0.00%

Group G

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
BelgiumBelgium
5.0100%
2
EgyptEgypt
5.0100%
3
IranIran
3.00%
4
New ZealandNew Zealand
1.00%

Group H

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
SpainSpain
7.0100%
2
Cape VerdeCape Verde
3.0100%
3
UruguayUruguay
2.00%
4
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia
2.00%

Group I

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
FranceFrance
9.0100%
2
NorwayNorway
6.0100%
3
SenegalSenegal
3.0100%
4
IraqIraq
0.00%

Group J

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
ArgentinaArgentina
9.0100%
2
AustriaAustria
4.0100%
3
AlgeriaAlgeria
4.0100%
4
JordanJordan
0.00%

Group K

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
ColombiaColombia
7.0100%
2
PortugalPortugal
5.0100%
3
DR CongoDR Congo
4.0100%
4
UzbekistanUzbekistan
0.00%

Group L

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
EnglandEngland
7.0100%
2
CroatiaCroatia
6.0100%
3
GhanaGhana
4.0100%
4
PanamaPanama
0.00%

Champion odds

Each team's probability of advancing through every knockout round, across 20,000 simulations.

#TeamQFSF🏆
1
ArgentinaArgentina
100.0%100.0%53.0%
2
SpainSpain
100.0%100.0%47.0%
3
MexicoMexico
0.0%0.0%0.0%
4
South KoreaSouth Korea
0.0%0.0%0.0%
5
South AfricaSouth Africa
0.0%0.0%0.0%
6
Czech RepublicCzech Republic
0.0%0.0%0.0%
7
CanadaCanada
0.0%0.0%0.0%
8
SwitzerlandSwitzerland
100.0%0.0%0.0%
9
QatarQatar
0.0%0.0%0.0%
10
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina
0.0%0.0%0.0%
11
BrazilBrazil
0.0%0.0%0.0%
12
MoroccoMorocco
100.0%0.0%0.0%
13
ScotlandScotland
0.0%0.0%0.0%
14
HaitiHaiti
0.0%0.0%0.0%
15
United StatesUnited States
0.0%0.0%0.0%
16
AustraliaAustralia
0.0%0.0%0.0%
17
ParaguayParaguay
0.0%0.0%0.0%
18
TurkeyTurkey
0.0%0.0%0.0%
19
GermanyGermany
0.0%0.0%0.0%
20
EcuadorEcuador
0.0%0.0%0.0%
21
Ivory CoastIvory Coast
0.0%0.0%0.0%
22
CuraçaoCuraçao
0.0%0.0%0.0%
23
NetherlandsNetherlands
0.0%0.0%0.0%
24
JapanJapan
0.0%0.0%0.0%
25
TunisiaTunisia
0.0%0.0%0.0%
26
SwedenSweden
0.0%0.0%0.0%
27
BelgiumBelgium
100.0%0.0%0.0%
28
IranIran
0.0%0.0%0.0%
29
EgyptEgypt
0.0%0.0%0.0%
30
New ZealandNew Zealand
0.0%0.0%0.0%
31
UruguayUruguay
0.0%0.0%0.0%
32
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia
0.0%0.0%0.0%
33
Cape VerdeCape Verde
0.0%0.0%0.0%
34
FranceFrance
100.0%100.0%0.0%
35
SenegalSenegal
0.0%0.0%0.0%
36
NorwayNorway
100.0%0.0%0.0%
37
IraqIraq
0.0%0.0%0.0%
38
AustriaAustria
0.0%0.0%0.0%
39
AlgeriaAlgeria
0.0%0.0%0.0%
40
JordanJordan
0.0%0.0%0.0%
41
PortugalPortugal
0.0%0.0%0.0%
42
ColombiaColombia
0.0%0.0%0.0%
43
DR CongoDR Congo
0.0%0.0%0.0%
44
UzbekistanUzbekistan
0.0%0.0%0.0%
45
EnglandEngland
100.0%100.0%0.0%
46
CroatiaCroatia
0.0%0.0%0.0%
47
PanamaPanama
0.0%0.0%0.0%
48
GhanaGhana
0.0%0.0%0.0%

The bracket

Actual results where they exist; the single most likely outcome — not just a probability — for everything still to be played.

RO32

06-28 · InglewoodPlayed
South AfricaSouth Africa0
CanadaCanada1
06-29 · FoxboroughPlayed
GermanyGermany1
ParaguayParaguay1
Penalties 3–4
06-29 · GuadalupePlayed
NetherlandsNetherlands1
MoroccoMorocco1
Penalties 2–3
06-29 · HoustonPlayed
BrazilBrazil2
JapanJapan1
06-30 · East RutherfordPlayed
FranceFrance3
SwedenSweden0
06-30 · ArlingtonPlayed
Ivory CoastIvory Coast1
NorwayNorway2
06-30 · Mexico CityPlayed
MexicoMexico2
EcuadorEcuador0
07-01 · Santa ClaraPlayed
United StatesUnited States2
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina0
07-01 · SeattlePlayed
BelgiumBelgium3
SenegalSenegal2
07-01 · AtlantaPlayed
EnglandEngland2
DR CongoDR Congo1
07-02 · TorontoPlayed
PortugalPortugal2
CroatiaCroatia1
07-02 · InglewoodPlayed
SpainSpain3
AustriaAustria0
07-02 · VancouverPlayed
SwitzerlandSwitzerland2
AlgeriaAlgeria0
07-03 · Miami GardensPlayed
ArgentinaArgentina3
Cape VerdeCape Verde2
07-03 · ArlingtonPlayed
AustraliaAustralia1
EgyptEgypt1
Penalties 2–4
07-03 · Kansas CityPlayed
ColombiaColombia1
GhanaGhana0

RO16

07-04 · PhiladelphiaPlayed
ParaguayParaguay0
FranceFrance1
07-04 · HoustonPlayed
CanadaCanada0
MoroccoMorocco3
07-05 · East RutherfordPlayed
BrazilBrazil1
NorwayNorway2
07-05 · Mexico CityPlayed
MexicoMexico2
EnglandEngland3
07-06 · ArlingtonPlayed
PortugalPortugal0
SpainSpain1
07-06 · SeattlePlayed
United StatesUnited States1
BelgiumBelgium4
07-07 · AtlantaPlayed
ArgentinaArgentina3
EgyptEgypt2
07-07 · VancouverPlayed
SwitzerlandSwitzerland0
ColombiaColombia0
Penalties 4–3

QF

07-09 · BostonPlayed
FranceFrance2
MoroccoMorocco0
07-10 · InglewoodPlayed
SpainSpain2
BelgiumBelgium1
07-11 · Miami GardensPlayed
NorwayNorway1
EnglandEngland2
07-11 · Kansas CityPlayed
ArgentinaArgentina3
SwitzerlandSwitzerland1

SF

07-14 · ArlingtonPlayed
FranceFrance0
SpainSpain2
07-15 · AtlantaPlayed
EnglandEngland1
ArgentinaArgentina2

3rd Place

07-18 · Miami GardensProjected
FranceFrance
EnglandEngland

Final

07-19 · East RutherfordProjected
SpainSpain
ArgentinaArgentina

Ensemble: 60% Poisson+Elo / 40% Poisson GLM. Probabilistic model for analysis, not betting advice.