←Project overview
South Africa0
Canada1
Germany1
Paraguay1
Netherlands1
Morocco1
Brazil2
Japan1
France3
Sweden0
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
Mexico2
Ecuador0
United States2
Bosnia and Herzegovina0
Belgium3
Senegal2
England2
DR Congo1
Portugal2
Croatia1
Spain3
Austria0
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Argentina3
Cape Verde2
Australia1
Egypt1
Colombia1
Ghana0Paraguay0France1Canada0Morocco3Brazil1Norway2Mexico2England3Portugal0Spain1United States1Belgium4Argentina3Egypt2Switzerland0Colombia0France2Morocco0Spain2Belgium1Norway1England2Argentina3Switzerland1France0Spain2England1Argentina2FranceEnglandSpainArgentina
Snapshot 8 · After SF
Knockout Stage Forecast
Everything through the Semi-Finals is real. Only the third-place match and the Final remain — predicted across 20,000 simulations.
What the model thought here
New real results since the previous snapshot: Semi-finals. The model called 2 of 2 ties correctly (the favoured team advanced). Biggest surprise: France 0–2 Spain — Model gave Spain 54.4% to advance.
Title odds roseSpain27.1% → 47.0%Argentina33.3% → 53.0%
Spain27.1% → 47.0%Argentina33.3% → 53.0%Title odds fellFrance21.0% → 0.0%England18.7% → 0.0%
France21.0% → 0.0%England18.7% → 0.0%Favourite now: Argentina (53.0%). Spain, who went on to win, sits at 47.0% (#2).
Only two matches remain. In hindsight: Spain 1–0 Argentina (after extra time) — the model had given Spain 47% to win it.
Marked “what actually happened” below is hindsight and was not known to the model at this snapshot.
Match explorer
Pick a stage and a view. Matches already played at this snapshot show the odds the model had before kickoff; matches still to come show this snapshot’s forecast, with the real outcome added afterwards.
Group stage
Knockouts
07-18 · Miami GardensPredicted
France
Elo 2124
vs
England
Elo 2074
90-minute result
36%
30%
34%
France 36%Draw 30%England 34%
To advance
51%
49%
France 51%England 49%
What actually happened4–6✗ Favourite out
The model gave England 49% to advance. Exact score outside the model’s printed grid (more than 5 goals by a side).
Projected final standings
Expected points and qualification odds across 20,000 simulations.
Top 2 — advance directlyBest 8 third-placed — wildcard
Group A
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 9.0 | 100% |
| 2 | South Africa | 4.0 | 100% |
| 3 |  South Korea | 3.0 | 0% |
| 4 |  Czech Republic | 1.0 | 0% |
Group B
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Canada | 4.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Qatar | 1.0 | 0% |
Group C
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Morocco | 7.0 | 100% |
| 3 |  Scotland | 3.0 | 0% |
| 4 |  Haiti | 0.0 | 0% |
Group D
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 6.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Australia | 4.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Paraguay | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Turkey | 3.0 | 0% |
Group E
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 6.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 6.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Ecuador | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Curaçao | 1.0 | 0% |
Group F
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Japan | 5.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Sweden | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Tunisia | 0.0 | 0% |
Group G
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 5.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Egypt | 5.0 | 100% |
| 3 |  Iran | 3.0 | 0% |
| 4 |  New Zealand | 1.0 | 0% |
Group H
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Cape Verde | 3.0 | 100% |
| 3 |  Uruguay | 2.0 | 0% |
| 4 |  Saudi Arabia | 2.0 | 0% |
Group I
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 9.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Norway | 6.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Senegal | 3.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Iraq | 0.0 | 0% |
Group J
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 9.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Austria | 4.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Algeria | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Jordan | 0.0 | 0% |
Group K
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Portugal | 5.0 | 100% |
| 3 | DR Congo | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Uzbekistan | 0.0 | 0% |
Group L
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Croatia | 6.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Ghana | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Panama | 0.0 | 0% |
Champion odds
Each team's probability of advancing through every knockout round, across 20,000 simulations.
| # | Team | QF | SF | 🏆 | Δ 🏆 vs prev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 100.0% | 100.0% | 53.0% | +19.7 |
| 2 | Spain★ | 100.0% | 100.0% | 47.0% | +19.9 |
| 3 | Mexico | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 4 | South Korea | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 5 | South Africa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 6 | Czech Republic | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 7 | Canada | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 8 | Switzerland | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 9 | Qatar | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 10 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 11 | Brazil | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 12 | Morocco | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 13 | Scotland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 14 | Haiti | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 15 | United States | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 16 | Australia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 17 | Paraguay | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 18 | Turkey | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 19 | Germany | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 20 | Ecuador | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 21 | Ivory Coast | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 22 | Curaçao | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 23 | Netherlands | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 24 | Japan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 25 | Tunisia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 26 | Sweden | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 27 | Belgium | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 28 | Iran | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 29 | Egypt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 30 | New Zealand | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 31 | Uruguay | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 32 | Saudi Arabia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 33 | Cape Verde | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 34 | France | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | -21.0 |
| 35 | Senegal | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 36 | Norway | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 37 | Iraq | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 38 | Austria | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 39 | Algeria | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 40 | Jordan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 41 | Portugal | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 42 | Colombia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 43 | DR Congo | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 44 | Uzbekistan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 45 | England | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | -18.7 |
| 46 | Croatia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 47 | Panama | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 48 | Ghana | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The bracket
Actual results where they exist; the single most likely outcome — not just a probability — for everything still to be played.
RO32
06-28 · InglewoodPlayed
South Africa0Canada1Advance
31%
69%
South Africa 31%Canada 69%
06-29 · FoxboroughPlayed
Germany1Paraguay1Penalties 3–4
Advance
61%
39%
Germany 61%Paraguay 39%
06-29 · GuadalupePlayed
Netherlands1Morocco1Penalties 2–3
Advance
54%
46%
Netherlands 54%Morocco 46%
06-29 · HoustonPlayed
Brazil2Japan1Advance
53%
47%
Brazil 53%Japan 47%
06-30 · East RutherfordPlayed
France3Sweden0Advance
81%
19%
France 81%Sweden 19%
06-30 · ArlingtonPlayed
Ivory Coast1Norway2Advance
34%
66%
Ivory Coast 34%Norway 66%
06-30 · Mexico CityPlayed
Mexico2Ecuador0Advance
55%
45%
Mexico 55%Ecuador 45%
07-01 · Santa ClaraPlayed
United States2Bosnia and Herzegovina0Advance
71%
29%
United States 71%Bosnia and Herzegovina 29%
07-01 · SeattlePlayed
Belgium3Senegal2Advance
57%
43%
Belgium 57%Senegal 43%
07-01 · AtlantaPlayed
England2DR Congo1Advance
75%
25%
England 75%DR Congo 25%
07-02 · TorontoPlayed
Portugal2Croatia1Advance
61%
39%
Portugal 61%Croatia 39%
07-02 · InglewoodPlayed
Spain3Austria0Advance
72%
29%
Spain 72%Austria 29%
07-02 · VancouverPlayed
Switzerland2Algeria0Advance
58%
42%
Switzerland 58%Algeria 42%
07-03 · Miami GardensPlayed
Argentina3Cape Verde2Advance
92%
Argentina 92%Cape Verde 8%
07-03 · ArlingtonPlayed
Australia1Egypt1Penalties 2–4
Advance
56%
44%
Australia 56%Egypt 44%
07-03 · Kansas CityPlayed
Colombia1Ghana0Advance
85%
15%
Colombia 85%Ghana 15%
RO16
07-04 · PhiladelphiaPlayed
Paraguay0France1Advance
30%
70%
Paraguay 30%France 70%
07-04 · HoustonPlayed
Canada0Morocco3Advance
36%
64%
Canada 36%Morocco 64%
07-05 · East RutherfordPlayed
Brazil1Norway2Advance
55%
45%
Brazil 55%Norway 45%
07-05 · Mexico CityPlayed
Mexico2England3Advance
47%
53%
Mexico 47%England 53%
07-06 · ArlingtonPlayed
Portugal0Spain1Advance
39%
61%
Portugal 39%Spain 61%
07-06 · SeattlePlayed
United States1Belgium4Advance
40%
60%
United States 40%Belgium 60%
07-07 · AtlantaPlayed
Argentina3Egypt2Advance
81%
19%
Argentina 81%Egypt 19%
07-07 · VancouverPlayed
Switzerland0Colombia0Penalties 4–3
Advance
47%
53%
Switzerland 47%Colombia 53%
QF
07-09 · BostonPlayed
France2Morocco0Advance
60%
40%
France 60%Morocco 40%
07-10 · InglewoodPlayed
Spain2Belgium1Advance
66%
34%
Spain 66%Belgium 34%
07-11 · Miami GardensPlayed
Norway1England2Advance
43%
57%
Norway 43%England 57%
07-11 · Kansas CityPlayed
Argentina3Switzerland1Advance
68%
32%
Argentina 68%Switzerland 32%
SF
07-14 · ArlingtonPlayed
France0Spain2Advance
46%
54%
France 46%Spain 54%
07-15 · AtlantaPlayed
England1Argentina2Advance
41%
59%
England 41%Argentina 59%
3rd Place
07-18 · Miami GardensProjected
FranceEnglandAdvance
51%
49%
France 51%England 49%
What actually happened: 4–6 · ✗ Favourite out
Final
07-19 · East RutherfordProjected
SpainArgentinaAdvance
47%
53%
Spain 47%Argentina 53%
What actually happened: 1–0 (after extra time) · ✗ Favourite out
Ensemble: 60% Poisson+Elo / 40% Poisson GLM. Probabilistic model for analysis, not betting advice.