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Data Science · Sports Modeling

FIFA World Cup 2026Prediction Model

A living statistical model that forecasts the 2026 World Cup one stage at a time. It is trained on 48,235 international matches and re-run after every round, so each prediction uses everything known up to that moment.

PythonpandasstatsmodelsNumPyPoisson GLMEloMonte CarloNext.js

How it works

Two models, one ensemble

A Poisson + Elo regression over the full history is blended (40/60) with a Poisson GLM that learns per-team attack & defense strengths from 2010 onward. Recent matches are weighted more heavily.

Goals → everything

Each match becomes a probability grid over scorelines. From that single grid we derive win/draw/loss, over/under 2.5, both-teams-to-score and the most likely results.

Simulated 20,000 times

The entire tournament — group stage through the final — is Monte-Carlo simulated 20,000 times. Each run resolves the bracket using the official FIFA seeding rules for third-place teams.

Prediction stages

As real results come in, the training window grows and a new forecast is published for everything that remains. Eight snapshots, from kickoff to the final.

Stage 1LIVE
Pre-tournament
Full group stage
Stage 2LIVE
After Round 1
Round 2 → final
Stage 3LIVE
After Round 2
Round 3 → final
Stage 4LIVE
After groups
Round of 32 → final
Stage 5LIVE
After RO32
Round of 16 → final
Stage 6LIVE
After RO16
Quarter-finals → final
Stage 7LIVE
After QF
Semi-finals → final
Stage 8LIVE
After SF
Final + 3rd place

The 48 nations

Twelve groups of four. Each row shows the team's current Elo rating and its rank among all 48 qualified nations.

Group A

Top seed · Mexico
MexicoMexico1875#18
South KoreaSouth Korea1758#28
South AfricaSouth Africa1517#45
Czech RepublicCzech Republic1740#29

Group B

Top seed · Canada
CanadaCanada1788#23
SwitzerlandSwitzerland1891#17
QatarQatar1421#48
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina1595#40

Group C

Top seed · Brazil
BrazilBrazil1991#5
MoroccoMorocco1827#22
ScotlandScotland1782#24
HaitiHaiti1548#44

Group D

Top seed · United States
United StatesUnited States1726#31
AustraliaAustralia1777#25
ParaguayParaguay1834#20
TurkeyTurkey1911#13

Group E

Top seed · Germany
GermanyGermany1932#10
EcuadorEcuador1938#9
Ivory CoastIvory Coast1695#35
CuraçaoCuraçao1434#47

Group F

Top seed · Netherlands
NetherlandsNetherlands1948#8
JapanJapan1906#14
TunisiaTunisia1628#38
SwedenSweden1712#33

Group G

Top seed · Belgium
BelgiumBelgium1894#15
IranIran1772#26
EgyptEgypt1696#34
New ZealandNew Zealand1562#43

Group H

Top seed · Spain
SpainSpain2157#1
UruguayUruguay1892#16
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia1576#42
Cape VerdeCape Verde1578#41

Group I

Top seed · France
FranceFrance2063#3
SenegalSenegal1860#19
NorwayNorway1914#11
IraqIraq1607#39

Group J

Top seed · Argentina
ArgentinaArgentina2115#2
AustriaAustria1830#21
AlgeriaAlgeria1772#27
JordanJordan1680#36

Group K

Top seed · Portugal
PortugalPortugal1989#6
ColombiaColombia1982#7
UzbekistanUzbekistan1714#32
DR CongoDR Congo1652#37

Group L

Top seed · England
EnglandEngland2024#4
CroatiaCroatia1912#12
PanamaPanama1730#30
GhanaGhana1510#46

Elo ratings sourced pre-tournament. This is a probabilistic model for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice. Methodology snapshot: trained on data up to 2026-06-11.