←Project overview
South Africa
Canada
Germany
Paraguay
Netherlands
Morocco
Brazil
Japan
France
Sweden
Ivory Coast
Norway
Mexico
Ecuador
United States
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Belgium
Senegal
England
DR Congo
Portugal
Croatia
Spain
Austria
Switzerland
Algeria
Argentina
Cape Verde
Australia
Egypt
Colombia
GhanaGermanyFranceCanadaNetherlandsBrazilNorwayMexicoEnglandPortugalSpainUnited StatesBelgiumArgentinaAustraliaSwitzerlandColombiaFranceNetherlandsSpainBelgiumBrazilEnglandArgentinaColombiaFranceSpainEnglandArgentinaFranceEnglandSpainArgentina
Snapshot 4 · After groups
Knockout Stage Forecast
The group stage is complete — all 72 results are real. The entire knockout bracket, from the Round of 32 to the champion, is predicted across 20,000 simulations.
What the model thought here
New real results since the previous snapshot: Matchday 3. The model called 14 of 24 results correctly. Biggest surprise: South Africa 1–0 South Korea (17.3%).
Title odds roseFrance8.8% → 10.7%Ecuador0.6% → 2.0%Argentina21.5% → 22.6%
France8.8% → 10.7%Ecuador0.6% → 2.0%Argentina21.5% → 22.6%Title odds fellNorway4.8% → 3.0%Germany4.2% → 2.9%Portugal5.2% → 4.2%
Norway4.8% → 3.0%Germany4.2% → 2.9%Portugal5.2% → 4.2%Favourite now: Argentina (22.6%). Spain, who went on to win, sits at 12.2% (#2).
Marked “what actually happened” below is hindsight and was not known to the model at this snapshot.
Match explorer
Pick a stage and a view. Matches already played at this snapshot show the odds the model had before kickoff; matches still to come show this snapshot’s forecast, with the real outcome added afterwards.
Group stage
Knockouts
06-28 · InglewoodPredicted
South Africa
Elo 1575
vs
Canada
Elo 1748
90-minute result
17%
28%
55%
South Africa 17%Draw 28%Canada 55%
To advance
31%
69%
South Africa 31%Canada 69%
What actually happened0–1✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave Canada 69% to advance. Exact score: 16.1% (#1 most likely).
06-29 · FoxboroughPredicted
Germany
Elo 1916
vs
Paraguay
Elo 1815
90-minute result
47%
28%
25%
Germany 47%Draw 28%Paraguay 25%
To advance
61%
39%
Germany 61%Paraguay 39%
What actually happened1–1 (3–4 pens)✗ Favourite out
The model gave Paraguay 39% to advance.
06-29 · GuadalupePredicted
Netherlands
Elo 1981
vs
Morocco
Elo 1877
90-minute result
39%
31%
30%
Netherlands 39%Draw 31%Morocco 30%
To advance
54%
46%
Netherlands 54%Morocco 46%
What actually happened1–1 (2–3 pens)✗ Favourite out
The model gave Morocco 46% to advance.
06-29 · HoustonPredicted
Brazil
Elo 2009
vs
Japan
Elo 1909
90-minute result
39%
29%
32%
Brazil 39%Draw 29%Japan 32%
To advance
53%
47%
Brazil 53%Japan 47%
What actually happened2–1✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave Brazil 53% to advance. Exact score: 7.9% (#5 most likely).
06-30 · East RutherfordPredicted
France
Elo 2123
vs
Sweden
Elo 1742
90-minute result
72%
17%
France 72%Draw 17%Sweden 11%
To advance
81%
19%
France 81%Sweden 19%
What actually happened3–0✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave France 81% to advance. Exact score: 9.3% (#3 most likely).
06-30 · ArlingtonPredicted
Ivory Coast
Elo 1744
vs
Norway
Elo 1919
90-minute result
20%
28%
52%
Ivory Coast 20%Draw 28%Norway 52%
To advance
34%
66%
Ivory Coast 34%Norway 66%
What actually happened1–2✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave Norway 66% to advance. Exact score: 8.8% (#5 most likely).
06-30 · Mexico CityPredicted
Mexico
Elo 1912
vs
Ecuador
Elo 1901
90-minute result
39%
33%
28%
Mexico 39%Draw 33%Ecuador 28%
To advance
55%
45%
Mexico 55%Ecuador 45%
What actually happened2–0✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave Mexico 55% to advance. Exact score: 7.5% (#5 most likely).
07-01 · Santa ClaraPredicted
United States
Elo 1781
vs
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Elo 1621
90-minute result
59%
23%
17%
United States 59%Draw 23%Bosnia and Herzegovina 17%
To advance
71%
29%
United States 71%Bosnia and Herzegovina 29%
What actually happened2–0✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave United States 71% to advance. Exact score: 11.1% (#2 most likely).
07-01 · SeattlePredicted
Belgium
Elo 1884
vs
Senegal
Elo 1841
90-minute result
43%
28%
29%
Belgium 43%Draw 28%Senegal 29%
To advance
57%
43%
Belgium 57%Senegal 43%
What actually happened3–2 (a.e.t.)✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave Belgium 57% to advance.
07-01 · AtlantaPredicted
England
Elo 2038
vs
DR Congo
Elo 1713
90-minute result
62%
27%
England 62%Draw 27%DR Congo 11%
To advance
75%
25%
England 75%DR Congo 25%
What actually happened2–1✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave England 75% to advance. Exact score: 7.4% (#5 most likely).
07-02 · TorontoPredicted
Portugal
Elo 1989
vs
Croatia
Elo 1904
90-minute result
47%
28%
25%
Portugal 47%Draw 28%Croatia 25%
To advance
61%
39%
Portugal 61%Croatia 39%
What actually happened2–1✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave Portugal 61% to advance. Exact score: 9.0% (#5 most likely).
07-02 · InglewoodPredicted
Spain
Elo 2144
vs
Austria
Elo 1836
90-minute result
59%
24%
16%
Spain 59%Draw 24%Austria 16%
To advance
72%
29%
Spain 72%Austria 29%
What actually happened3–0✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave Spain 72% to advance. Exact score: 7.2%.
07-02 · VancouverPredicted
Switzerland
Elo 1914
vs
Algeria
Elo 1786
90-minute result
44%
29%
27%
Switzerland 44%Draw 29%Algeria 27%
To advance
58%
42%
Switzerland 58%Algeria 42%
What actually happened2–0✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave Switzerland 58% to advance. Exact score: 8.7% (#5 most likely).
07-03 · Miami GardensPredicted
Argentina
Elo 2148
vs
Cape Verde
Elo 1622
90-minute result
87%
Argentina 87%Draw 10%Cape Verde 3%
To advance
92%
Argentina 92%Cape Verde 8%
What actually happened3–2 (a.e.t.)✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave Argentina 92% to advance.
07-03 · ArlingtonPredicted
Australia
Elo 1800
vs
Egypt
Elo 1742
90-minute result
40%
32%
28%
Australia 40%Draw 32%Egypt 28%
To advance
56%
44%
Australia 56%Egypt 44%
What actually happened1–1 (2–4 pens)✗ Favourite out
The model gave Egypt 44% to advance.
07-03 · Kansas CityPredicted
Colombia
Elo 2004
vs
Ghana
Elo 1575
90-minute result
77%
16%
Colombia 77%Draw 16%Ghana 7%
To advance
85%
15%
Colombia 85%Ghana 15%
What actually happened1–0✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave Colombia 85% to advance. Exact score: 11.5% (#2 most likely).
Projected final standings
Expected points and qualification odds across 20,000 simulations.
Top 2 — advance directlyBest 8 third-placed — wildcard
Group A
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 9.0 | 100% |
| 2 | South Africa | 4.0 | 100% |
| 3 |  South Korea | 3.0 | 0% |
| 4 |  Czech Republic | 1.0 | 0% |
Group B
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Canada | 4.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Qatar | 1.0 | 0% |
Group C
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Morocco | 7.0 | 100% |
| 3 |  Scotland | 3.0 | 0% |
| 4 |  Haiti | 0.0 | 0% |
Group D
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 6.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Australia | 4.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Paraguay | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Turkey | 3.0 | 0% |
Group E
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 6.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 6.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Ecuador | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Curaçao | 1.0 | 0% |
Group F
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Japan | 5.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Sweden | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Tunisia | 0.0 | 0% |
Group G
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 5.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Egypt | 5.0 | 100% |
| 3 |  Iran | 3.0 | 0% |
| 4 |  New Zealand | 1.0 | 0% |
Group H
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Cape Verde | 3.0 | 100% |
| 3 |  Uruguay | 2.0 | 0% |
| 4 |  Saudi Arabia | 2.0 | 0% |
Group I
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 9.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Norway | 6.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Senegal | 3.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Iraq | 0.0 | 0% |
Group J
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 9.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Austria | 4.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Algeria | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Jordan | 0.0 | 0% |
Group K
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Portugal | 5.0 | 100% |
| 3 | DR Congo | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Uzbekistan | 0.0 | 0% |
Group L
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Croatia | 6.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Ghana | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Panama | 0.0 | 0% |
Champion odds
Each team's probability of advancing through every knockout round, across 20,000 simulations.
| # | Team | QF | SF | 🏆 | Δ 🏆 vs prev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 74.1% | 51.4% | 22.6% | +1.1 |
| 2 | Spain★ | 46.3% | 33.8% | 12.2% | +0.2 |
| 3 | France | 52.6% | 34.4% | 10.7% | +1.9 |
| 4 | England | 41.6% | 24.3% | 6.6% | 0.0 |
| 5 | Colombia | 49.7% | 21.7% | 5.2% | +0.2 |
| 6 | Netherlands | 40.4% | 20.1% | 4.8% | +0.9 |
| 7 | Portugal | 27.6% | 17.3% | 4.2% | -1.0 |
| 8 | Brazil | 32.1% | 17.4% | 4.1% | 0.0 |
| 9 | Norway | 31.1% | 15.2% | 3.0% | -1.8 |
| 10 | Germany | 27.6% | 15.0% | 2.9% | -1.3 |
| 11 | Morocco | 30.7% | 13.9% | 2.8% | +0.5 |
| 12 | Belgium | 36.9% | 14.9% | 2.8% | +0.7 |
| 13 | Japan | 25.8% | 13.1% | 2.7% | -0.7 |
| 14 | Mexico | 29.4% | 13.4% | 2.4% | -0.3 |
| 15 | Switzerland | 29.5% | 11.7% | 2.3% | -0.1 |
| 16 | Ecuador | 21.7% | 10.9% | 2.0% | +1.4 |
| 17 | United States | 31.4% | 10.4% | 1.3% | -0.6 |
| 18 | Senegal | 24.3% | 8.6% | 1.2% | +0.8 |
| 19 | Croatia | 14.0% | 7.4% | 1.1% | -0.2 |
| 20 | Austria | 12.1% | 6.3% | 0.9% | -0.1 |
| 21 | Algeria | 17.5% | 5.9% | 0.9% | +0.1 |
| 22 | Paraguay | 13.5% | 6.2% | 0.8% | +0.2 |
| 23 | Australia | 13.7% | 5.2% | 0.7% | +0.2 |
| 24 | Canada | 23.4% | 7.4% | 0.6% | -0.3 |
| 25 | Ivory Coast | 10.9% | 3.8% | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| 26 | Egypt | 10.0% | 3.3% | 0.3% | -0.1 |
| 27 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 7.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% | +0.1 |
| 28 | Sweden | 6.4% | 2.2% | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| 29 | DR Congo | 7.4% | 2.1% | 0.1% | +0.1 |
| 30 | South Korea | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.4 |
| 31 | South Africa | 5.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 32 | Czech Republic | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 33 | Qatar | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 34 | Scotland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.3 |
| 35 | Haiti | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 36 | Turkey | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| 37 | Curaçao | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 38 | Tunisia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 39 | Iran | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.4 |
| 40 | New Zealand | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 41 | Uruguay | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.5 |
| 42 | Saudi Arabia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 43 | Cape Verde | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 44 | Iraq | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 45 | Jordan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 46 | Uzbekistan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 47 | Panama | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 48 | Ghana | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The bracket
Actual results where they exist; the single most likely outcome — not just a probability — for everything still to be played.
RO32
06-28 · InglewoodProjected
South AfricaCanadaAdvance
31%
69%
South Africa 31%Canada 69%
What actually happened: 0–1 · ✓ Favourite advanced
06-29 · FoxboroughProjected
GermanyParaguayAdvance
61%
39%
Germany 61%Paraguay 39%
What actually happened: 1–1 (3–4 pens) · ✗ Favourite out
06-29 · GuadalupeProjected
NetherlandsMoroccoAdvance
54%
46%
Netherlands 54%Morocco 46%
What actually happened: 1–1 (2–3 pens) · ✗ Favourite out
06-29 · HoustonProjected
BrazilJapanAdvance
53%
47%
Brazil 53%Japan 47%
What actually happened: 2–1 · ✓ Favourite advanced
06-30 · East RutherfordProjected
FranceSwedenAdvance
81%
19%
France 81%Sweden 19%
What actually happened: 3–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced
06-30 · ArlingtonProjected
Ivory CoastNorwayAdvance
34%
66%
Ivory Coast 34%Norway 66%
What actually happened: 1–2 · ✓ Favourite advanced
06-30 · Mexico CityProjected
MexicoEcuadorAdvance
55%
45%
Mexico 55%Ecuador 45%
What actually happened: 2–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-01 · Santa ClaraProjected
United StatesBosnia and HerzegovinaAdvance
71%
29%
United States 71%Bosnia and Herzegovina 29%
What actually happened: 2–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-01 · SeattleProjected
BelgiumSenegalAdvance
57%
43%
Belgium 57%Senegal 43%
What actually happened: 3–2 (after extra time) · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-01 · AtlantaProjected
EnglandDR CongoAdvance
75%
25%
England 75%DR Congo 25%
What actually happened: 2–1 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-02 · TorontoProjected
PortugalCroatiaAdvance
61%
39%
Portugal 61%Croatia 39%
What actually happened: 2–1 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-02 · InglewoodProjected
SpainAustriaAdvance
72%
29%
Spain 72%Austria 29%
What actually happened: 3–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-02 · VancouverProjected
SwitzerlandAlgeriaAdvance
58%
42%
Switzerland 58%Algeria 42%
What actually happened: 2–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-03 · Miami GardensProjected
ArgentinaCape VerdeAdvance
92%
Argentina 92%Cape Verde 8%
What actually happened: 3–2 (after extra time) · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-03 · ArlingtonProjected
AustraliaEgyptAdvance
56%
44%
Australia 56%Egypt 44%
What actually happened: 1–1 (2–4 pens) · ✗ Favourite out
07-03 · Kansas CityProjected
ColombiaGhanaAdvance
85%
15%
Colombia 85%Ghana 15%
What actually happened: 1–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced
RO16
07-04 · PhiladelphiaProjected
GermanyFranceAdvance
39%
61%
Germany 39%France 61%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Paraguay vs France.
07-04 · HoustonProjected
CanadaNetherlandsAdvance
32%
68%
Canada 32%Netherlands 68%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Canada vs Morocco.
07-05 · East RutherfordProjected
BrazilNorwayAdvance
54%
46%
Brazil 54%Norway 46%
What actually happened: 1–2 · ✗ Favourite out
07-05 · Mexico CityProjected
MexicoEnglandAdvance
46%
54%
Mexico 46%England 54%
What actually happened: 2–3 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-06 · ArlingtonProjected
PortugalSpainAdvance
39%
61%
Portugal 39%Spain 61%
What actually happened: 0–1 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-06 · SeattleProjected
United StatesBelgiumAdvance
41%
59%
United States 41%Belgium 59%
What actually happened: 1–4 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-07 · AtlantaProjected
ArgentinaAustraliaAdvance
79%
21%
Argentina 79%Australia 21%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Argentina vs Egypt.
07-07 · VancouverProjected
SwitzerlandColombiaAdvance
45%
55%
Switzerland 45%Colombia 55%
What actually happened: 0–0 (4–3 pens) · ✗ Favourite out
QF
07-09 · BostonProjected
FranceNetherlandsAdvance
59%
41%
France 59%Netherlands 41%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was France vs Morocco.
07-10 · InglewoodProjected
SpainBelgiumAdvance
68%
32%
Spain 68%Belgium 32%
What actually happened: 2–1 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-11 · Miami GardensProjected
BrazilEnglandAdvance
46%
54%
Brazil 46%England 54%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Norway vs England.
07-11 · Kansas CityProjected
ArgentinaColombiaAdvance
66%
34%
Argentina 66%Colombia 34%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Argentina vs Switzerland.
SF
07-14 · ArlingtonProjected
FranceSpainAdvance
46%
54%
France 46%Spain 54%
What actually happened: 0–2 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-15 · AtlantaProjected
EnglandArgentinaAdvance
39%
61%
England 39%Argentina 61%
What actually happened: 1–2 · ✓ Favourite advanced
3rd Place
07-18 · Miami GardensProjected
FranceEnglandAdvance
53%
47%
France 53%England 47%
What actually happened: 4–6 · ✗ Favourite out
Final
07-19 · East RutherfordProjected
SpainArgentinaAdvance
45%
55%
Spain 45%Argentina 55%
What actually happened: 1–0 (after extra time) · ✗ Favourite out
Ensemble: 60% Poisson+Elo / 40% Poisson GLM. Probabilistic model for analysis, not betting advice.