HMVhmantovani
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Stage 4 · After Group Stage

Knockout Stage Forecast

The group stage is complete — all 72 results are real. The entire knockout bracket, from the Round of 32 to the champion, is predicted across 20,000 simulations.

Match predictions

Mexico
Mexico
Elo 1912
06-11
2 – 0
South Africa
Elo 1575
South Africa
Pre-match prediction
76%
17%
Win 76%Draw 17%Win 7%
Likely2-0
xG2.27–0.53
O 2.553%
BTTS37%
South Korea
South Korea
Elo 1723
06-11
2 – 1
Czech Republic
Elo 1680
Czech Republic
Pre-match prediction
39%
29%
32%
Win 39%Draw 29%Win 32%
Likely1-1
xG1.31–1.17
O 2.545%
BTTS51%
Canada
Canada
Elo 1748
06-12
1 – 1
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Elo 1621
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Pre-match prediction
59%
26%
15%
Win 59%Draw 26%Win 15%
Likely1-0
xG1.62–0.71
O 2.541%
BTTS41%
Qatar
Qatar
Elo 1411
06-13
1 – 1
Switzerland
Elo 1914
Switzerland
Pre-match prediction
88%
Win 3%Draw 9%Win 88%
Likely0-3
xG0.47–3.23
O 2.571%
BTTS36%
Brazil
Brazil
Elo 2009
06-13
1 – 1
Morocco
Elo 1877
Morocco
Pre-match prediction
41%
30%
29%
Win 41%Draw 30%Win 29%
Likely1-1
xG1.25–0.98
O 2.538%
BTTS44%
Haiti
Haiti
Elo 1517
06-13
0 – 1
Scotland
Elo 1745
Scotland
Pre-match prediction
15%
22%
63%
Win 15%Draw 22%Win 63%
Likely0-2
xG0.83–1.96
O 2.553%
BTTS49%
United States
United States
Elo 1781
06-12
4 – 1
Paraguay
Elo 1815
Paraguay
Pre-match prediction
36%
28%
36%
Win 36%Draw 28%Win 36%
Likely1-1
xG1.26–1.27
O 2.546%
BTTS51%
Australia
Australia
Elo 1800
06-13
2 – 0
Turkey
Elo 1852
Turkey
Pre-match prediction
30%
29%
41%
Win 30%Draw 29%Win 41%
Likely1-1
xG1.06–1.29
O 2.542%
BTTS48%
Germany
Germany
Elo 1916
06-14
7 – 1
Curaçao
Elo 1438
Curaçao
Pre-match prediction
88%
Win 88%Draw 9%Win 3%
Likely3-0
xG3.34–0.5
O 2.572%
BTTS38%
Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast
Elo 1744
06-14
1 – 0
Ecuador
Elo 1901
Ecuador
Pre-match prediction
20%
34%
47%
Win 20%Draw 34%Win 47%
Likely0-0
xG0.7–1.22
O 2.531%
BTTS35%
Netherlands
Netherlands
Elo 1981
06-14
2 – 2
Japan
Elo 1909
Japan
Pre-match prediction
36%
31%
33%
Win 36%Draw 31%Win 33%
Likely1-1
xG1.13–1.05
O 2.537%
BTTS44%
Sweden
Sweden
Elo 1742
06-14
5 – 1
Tunisia
Elo 1562
Tunisia
Pre-match prediction
53%
26%
22%
Win 53%Draw 26%Win 22%
Likely1-1
xG1.65–0.97
O 2.549%
BTTS51%
Belgium
Belgium
Elo 1884
06-15
1 – 1
Egypt
Elo 1742
Egypt
Pre-match prediction
52%
28%
20%
Win 52%Draw 28%Win 20%
Likely1-0
xG1.47–0.81
O 2.540%
BTTS43%
Iran
Iran
Elo 1764
06-15
2 – 2
New Zealand
Elo 1534
New Zealand
Pre-match prediction
62%
24%
14%
Win 62%Draw 24%Win 14%
Likely1-0
xG1.73–0.7
O 2.544%
BTTS42%
Spain
Spain
Elo 2144
06-15
0 – 0
Cape Verde
Elo 1622
Cape Verde
Pre-match prediction
87%
Win 87%Draw 10%Win 3%
Likely3-0
xG3.05–0.47
O 2.568%
BTTS36%
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Elo 1595
06-15
1 – 1
Uruguay
Elo 1841
Uruguay
Pre-match prediction
14%
27%
58%
Win 14%Draw 27%Win 58%
Likely0-1
xG0.64–1.55
O 2.537%
BTTS38%
France
France
Elo 2123
06-16
3 – 1
Senegal
Elo 1841
Senegal
Pre-match prediction
59%
24%
18%
Win 59%Draw 24%Win 18%
Likely1-0
xG1.79–0.86
O 2.549%
BTTS48%
Iraq
Iraq
Elo 1561
06-16
1 – 4
Norway
Elo 1919
Norway
Pre-match prediction
19%
73%
Win 8%Draw 19%Win 73%
Likely0-2
xG0.56–2.1
O 2.550%
BTTS38%
Argentina
Argentina
Elo 2148
06-16
3 – 0
Algeria
Elo 1786
Algeria
Pre-match prediction
64%
25%
Win 64%Draw 25%Win 11%
Likely1-0
xG1.76–0.56
O 2.541%
BTTS35%
Austria
Austria
Elo 1836
06-16
3 – 1
Jordan
Elo 1628
Jordan
Pre-match prediction
62%
23%
15%
Win 62%Draw 23%Win 15%
Likely1-0
xG1.84–0.77
O 2.548%
BTTS46%
Portugal
Portugal
Elo 1989
06-17
1 – 1
DR Congo
Elo 1713
DR Congo
Pre-match prediction
60%
26%
14%
Win 60%Draw 26%Win 14%
Likely1-0
xG1.61–0.64
O 2.539%
BTTS38%
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan
Elo 1631
06-17
1 – 3
Colombia
Elo 2004
Colombia
Pre-match prediction
20%
70%
Win 10%Draw 20%Win 70%
Likely0-2
xG0.62–2.03
O 2.549%
BTTS40%
England
England
Elo 2038
06-17
4 – 2
Croatia
Elo 1904
Croatia
Pre-match prediction
50%
29%
21%
Win 50%Draw 29%Win 21%
Likely1-0
xG1.41–0.83
O 2.539%
BTTS43%
Ghana
Ghana
Elo 1575
06-17
1 – 0
Panama
Elo 1659
Panama
Pre-match prediction
32%
29%
39%
Win 32%Draw 29%Win 39%
Likely1-1
xG1.14–1.27
O 2.543%
BTTS49%

Projected final standings

Expected points and qualification odds across 20,000 simulations.

Top 2 — advance directlyBest 8 third-placed — wildcard

Group A

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
MexicoMexico
9.0100%
2
South AfricaSouth Africa
4.0100%
3
South KoreaSouth Korea
3.00%
4
Czech RepublicCzech Republic
1.00%

Group B

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
SwitzerlandSwitzerland
7.0100%
2
CanadaCanada
4.0100%
3
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina
4.0100%
4
QatarQatar
1.00%

Group C

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
BrazilBrazil
7.0100%
2
MoroccoMorocco
7.0100%
3
ScotlandScotland
3.00%
4
HaitiHaiti
0.00%

Group D

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
United StatesUnited States
6.0100%
2
AustraliaAustralia
4.0100%
3
ParaguayParaguay
4.0100%
4
TurkeyTurkey
3.00%

Group E

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
GermanyGermany
6.0100%
2
Ivory CoastIvory Coast
6.0100%
3
EcuadorEcuador
4.0100%
4
CuraçaoCuraçao
1.00%

Group F

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
NetherlandsNetherlands
7.0100%
2
JapanJapan
5.0100%
3
SwedenSweden
4.0100%
4
TunisiaTunisia
0.00%

Group G

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
BelgiumBelgium
5.0100%
2
EgyptEgypt
5.0100%
3
IranIran
3.00%
4
New ZealandNew Zealand
1.00%

Group H

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
SpainSpain
7.0100%
2
Cape VerdeCape Verde
3.0100%
3
UruguayUruguay
2.00%
4
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia
2.00%

Group I

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
FranceFrance
9.0100%
2
NorwayNorway
6.0100%
3
SenegalSenegal
3.0100%
4
IraqIraq
0.00%

Group J

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
ArgentinaArgentina
9.0100%
2
AustriaAustria
4.0100%
3
AlgeriaAlgeria
4.0100%
4
JordanJordan
0.00%

Group K

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
ColombiaColombia
7.0100%
2
PortugalPortugal
5.0100%
3
DR CongoDR Congo
4.0100%
4
UzbekistanUzbekistan
0.00%

Group L

Final
#TeamPtsQual
1
EnglandEngland
7.0100%
2
CroatiaCroatia
6.0100%
3
GhanaGhana
4.0100%
4
PanamaPanama
0.00%

Champion odds

Each team's probability of advancing through every knockout round, across 20,000 simulations.

#TeamQFSF🏆
1
ArgentinaArgentina
74.1%51.4%22.6%
2
SpainSpain
46.3%33.8%12.2%
3
FranceFrance
52.6%34.4%10.7%
4
EnglandEngland
41.6%24.3%6.6%
5
ColombiaColombia
49.7%21.7%5.2%
6
NetherlandsNetherlands
40.4%20.1%4.8%
7
PortugalPortugal
27.6%17.3%4.2%
8
BrazilBrazil
32.1%17.4%4.1%
9
NorwayNorway
31.1%15.2%3.0%
10
GermanyGermany
27.6%15.0%2.9%
11
MoroccoMorocco
30.7%13.9%2.8%
12
BelgiumBelgium
36.9%14.9%2.8%
13
JapanJapan
25.8%13.1%2.7%
14
MexicoMexico
29.4%13.4%2.4%
15
SwitzerlandSwitzerland
29.5%11.7%2.3%
16
EcuadorEcuador
21.7%10.9%2.0%
17
United StatesUnited States
31.4%10.4%1.3%
18
SenegalSenegal
24.3%8.6%1.2%
19
CroatiaCroatia
14.0%7.4%1.1%
20
AustriaAustria
12.1%6.3%0.9%
21
AlgeriaAlgeria
17.5%5.9%0.9%
22
ParaguayParaguay
13.5%6.2%0.8%
23
AustraliaAustralia
13.7%5.2%0.7%
24
CanadaCanada
23.4%7.4%0.6%
25
Ivory CoastIvory Coast
10.9%3.8%0.3%
26
EgyptEgypt
10.0%3.3%0.3%
27
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina
7.4%1.4%0.1%
28
SwedenSweden
6.4%2.2%0.1%
29
DR CongoDR Congo
7.4%2.1%0.1%
30
South KoreaSouth Korea
0.0%0.0%0.0%
31
South AfricaSouth Africa
5.5%0.9%0.0%
32
Czech RepublicCzech Republic
0.0%0.0%0.0%
33
QatarQatar
0.0%0.0%0.0%
34
ScotlandScotland
0.0%0.0%0.0%
35
HaitiHaiti
0.0%0.0%0.0%
36
TurkeyTurkey
0.0%0.0%0.0%
37
CuraçaoCuraçao
0.0%0.0%0.0%
38
TunisiaTunisia
0.0%0.0%0.0%
39
IranIran
0.0%0.0%0.0%
40
New ZealandNew Zealand
0.0%0.0%0.0%
41
UruguayUruguay
0.0%0.0%0.0%
42
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia
0.0%0.0%0.0%
43
Cape VerdeCape Verde
2.2%0.4%0.0%
44
IraqIraq
0.0%0.0%0.0%
45
JordanJordan
0.0%0.0%0.0%
46
UzbekistanUzbekistan
0.0%0.0%0.0%
47
PanamaPanama
0.0%0.0%0.0%
48
GhanaGhana
3.3%0.5%0.0%

The bracket

Actual results where they exist; the single most likely outcome — not just a probability — for everything still to be played.

RO32

06-28 · InglewoodProjected
South AfricaSouth Africa
CanadaCanada
06-29 · FoxboroughProjected
GermanyGermany
ParaguayParaguay
06-29 · GuadalupeProjected
NetherlandsNetherlands
MoroccoMorocco
06-29 · HoustonProjected
BrazilBrazil
JapanJapan
06-30 · East RutherfordProjected
FranceFrance
SwedenSweden
06-30 · ArlingtonProjected
Ivory CoastIvory Coast
NorwayNorway
06-30 · Mexico CityProjected
MexicoMexico
EcuadorEcuador
07-01 · Santa ClaraProjected
United StatesUnited States
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina
07-01 · SeattleProjected
BelgiumBelgium
SenegalSenegal
07-01 · AtlantaProjected
EnglandEngland
DR CongoDR Congo
07-02 · TorontoProjected
PortugalPortugal
CroatiaCroatia
07-02 · InglewoodProjected
SpainSpain
AustriaAustria
07-02 · VancouverProjected
SwitzerlandSwitzerland
AlgeriaAlgeria
07-03 · Miami GardensProjected
ArgentinaArgentina
Cape VerdeCape Verde
07-03 · ArlingtonProjected
AustraliaAustralia
EgyptEgypt
07-03 · Kansas CityProjected
ColombiaColombia
GhanaGhana

RO16

07-04 · PhiladelphiaProjected
GermanyGermany
FranceFrance
07-04 · HoustonProjected
CanadaCanada
NetherlandsNetherlands
07-05 · East RutherfordProjected
BrazilBrazil
NorwayNorway
07-05 · Mexico CityProjected
MexicoMexico
EnglandEngland
07-06 · ArlingtonProjected
PortugalPortugal
SpainSpain
07-06 · SeattleProjected
United StatesUnited States
BelgiumBelgium
07-07 · AtlantaProjected
ArgentinaArgentina
AustraliaAustralia
07-07 · VancouverProjected
SwitzerlandSwitzerland
ColombiaColombia

QF

07-09 · BostonProjected
FranceFrance
NetherlandsNetherlands
07-10 · InglewoodProjected
SpainSpain
BelgiumBelgium
07-11 · Miami GardensProjected
BrazilBrazil
EnglandEngland
07-11 · Kansas CityProjected
ArgentinaArgentina
ColombiaColombia

SF

07-14 · ArlingtonProjected
FranceFrance
SpainSpain
07-15 · AtlantaProjected
EnglandEngland
ArgentinaArgentina

3rd Place

07-18 · Miami GardensProjected
FranceFrance
EnglandEngland

Final

07-19 · East RutherfordProjected
SpainSpain
ArgentinaArgentina

Ensemble: 60% Poisson+Elo / 40% Poisson GLM. Probabilistic model for analysis, not betting advice.