←Project overview
South Africa0
Canada1
Germany1
Paraguay1
Netherlands1
Morocco1
Brazil2
Japan1
France3
Sweden0
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
Mexico2
Ecuador0
United States2
Bosnia and Herzegovina0
Belgium3
Senegal2
England2
DR Congo1
Portugal2
Croatia1
Spain3
Austria0
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Argentina3
Cape Verde2
Australia1
Egypt1
Colombia1
Ghana0ParaguayFranceCanadaMoroccoBrazilNorwayMexicoEnglandPortugalSpainUnited StatesBelgiumArgentinaEgyptSwitzerlandColombiaFranceMoroccoSpainBelgiumBrazilEnglandArgentinaColombiaFranceSpainEnglandArgentinaFranceEnglandSpainArgentina
Stage 5 · After Round of 32
Knockout Stage Forecast
Group stage and Round of 32 results are real. From the Round of 16 onward the bracket is predicted, across 20,000 simulations.
Match predictions
Mexico
Elo 1943
06-11
2 – 0
South Africa
Elo 1559
Pre-match prediction
78%
16%
Win 78%Draw 16%Win 6%
Likely2-0
xG2.39–0.5
O 2.555%
BTTS36%
South Korea
Elo 1723
06-11
2 – 1
Czech Republic
Elo 1680
Pre-match prediction
39%
29%
32%
Win 39%Draw 29%Win 32%
Likely1-1
xG1.31–1.17
O 2.545%
BTTS51%
Canada
Elo 1765
06-12
1 – 1
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Elo 1605
Pre-match prediction
61%
25%
14%
Win 61%Draw 25%Win 14%
Likely1-0
xG1.68–0.68
O 2.542%
BTTS41%
Qatar
Elo 1411
06-13
1 – 1
Switzerland
Elo 1943
Pre-match prediction
89%
Win 3%Draw 8%Win 89%
Likely0-3
xG0.46–3.31
O 2.572%
BTTS36%
Brazil
Elo 2030
06-13
1 – 1
Morocco
Elo 1916
Pre-match prediction
40%
30%
30%
Win 40%Draw 30%Win 30%
Likely1-1
xG1.22–1
O 2.538%
BTTS44%
Haiti
Elo 1517
06-13
0 – 1
Scotland
Elo 1745
Pre-match prediction
15%
22%
63%
Win 15%Draw 22%Win 63%
Likely0-2
xG0.83–1.96
O 2.553%
BTTS49%
United States
Elo 1797
06-12
4 – 1
Paraguay
Elo 1853
Pre-match prediction
35%
28%
37%
Win 35%Draw 28%Win 37%
Likely1-1
xG1.23–1.29
O 2.546%
BTTS52%
Australia
Elo 1765
06-13
2 – 0
Turkey
Elo 1852
Pre-match prediction
28%
29%
43%
Win 28%Draw 29%Win 43%
Likely1-1
xG1.02–1.33
O 2.542%
BTTS48%
Germany
Elo 1877
06-14
7 – 1
Curaçao
Elo 1438
Pre-match prediction
86%
Win 86%Draw 10%Win 4%
Likely2-0
xG3.24–0.52
O 2.570%
BTTS39%
Ivory Coast
Elo 1728
06-14
1 – 0
Ecuador
Elo 1870
Pre-match prediction
21%
34%
46%
Win 21%Draw 34%Win 46%
Likely0-0
xG0.71–1.19
O 2.530%
BTTS36%
Netherlands
Elo 1942
06-14
2 – 2
Japan
Elo 1888
Pre-match prediction
35%
31%
34%
Win 35%Draw 31%Win 34%
Likely1-1
xG1.11–1.07
O 2.537%
BTTS44%
Sweden
Elo 1732
06-14
5 – 1
Tunisia
Elo 1562
Pre-match prediction
52%
26%
22%
Win 52%Draw 26%Win 22%
Likely1-1
xG1.63–0.98
O 2.548%
BTTS51%
Belgium
Elo 1910
06-15
1 – 1
Egypt
Elo 1777
Pre-match prediction
52%
28%
20%
Win 52%Draw 28%Win 20%
Likely1-0
xG1.45–0.82
O 2.540%
BTTS43%
Iran
Elo 1764
06-15
2 – 2
New Zealand
Elo 1534
Pre-match prediction
62%
24%
14%
Win 62%Draw 24%Win 14%
Likely1-0
xG1.73–0.7
O 2.544%
BTTS42%
Spain
Elo 2159
06-15
0 – 0
Cape Verde
Elo 1620
Pre-match prediction
88%
Win 88%Draw 9%Win 3%
Likely3-0
xG3.1–0.47
O 2.569%
BTTS36%
Saudi Arabia
Elo 1595
06-15
1 – 1
Uruguay
Elo 1841
Pre-match prediction
14%
27%
58%
Win 14%Draw 27%Win 58%
Likely0-1
xG0.64–1.55
O 2.537%
BTTS38%
France
Elo 2133
06-16
3 – 1
Senegal
Elo 1815
Pre-match prediction
61%
23%
16%
Win 61%Draw 23%Win 16%
Likely1-0
xG1.86–0.83
O 2.551%
BTTS47%
Iraq
Elo 1561
06-16
1 – 4
Norway
Elo 1935
Pre-match prediction
18%
74%
Win 8%Draw 18%Win 74%
Likely0-2
xG0.55–2.14
O 2.550%
BTTS38%
Argentina
Elo 2151
06-16
3 – 0
Algeria
Elo 1756
Pre-match prediction
66%
24%
Win 66%Draw 24%Win 10%
Likely1-0
xG1.84–0.54
O 2.542%
BTTS35%
Austria
Elo 1821
06-16
3 – 1
Jordan
Elo 1628
Pre-match prediction
61%
24%
15%
Win 61%Draw 24%Win 15%
Likely1-0
xG1.81–0.79
O 2.548%
BTTS46%
Portugal
Elo 2012
06-17
1 – 1
DR Congo
Elo 1705
Pre-match prediction
62%
26%
13%
Win 62%Draw 26%Win 13%
Likely1-0
xG1.68–0.62
O 2.540%
BTTS38%
Uzbekistan
Elo 1631
06-17
1 – 3
Colombia
Elo 2009
Pre-match prediction
20%
70%
Win 10%Draw 20%Win 70%
Likely0-2
xG0.62–2.04
O 2.549%
BTTS40%
England
Elo 2046
06-17
4 – 2
Croatia
Elo 1881
Pre-match prediction
52%
28%
20%
Win 52%Draw 28%Win 20%
Likely1-0
xG1.45–0.8
O 2.539%
BTTS43%
Ghana
Elo 1570
06-17
1 – 0
Panama
Elo 1659
Pre-match prediction
32%
29%
39%
Win 32%Draw 29%Win 39%
Likely1-1
xG1.13–1.28
O 2.543%
BTTS49%
Projected final standings
Expected points and qualification odds across 20,000 simulations.
Top 2 — advance directlyBest 8 third-placed — wildcard
Group A
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 9.0 | 100% |
| 2 | South Africa | 4.0 | 100% |
| 3 |  South Korea | 3.0 | 0% |
| 4 |  Czech Republic | 1.0 | 0% |
Group B
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Canada | 4.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Qatar | 1.0 | 0% |
Group C
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Morocco | 7.0 | 100% |
| 3 |  Scotland | 3.0 | 0% |
| 4 |  Haiti | 0.0 | 0% |
Group D
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 6.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Australia | 4.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Paraguay | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Turkey | 3.0 | 0% |
Group E
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 6.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 6.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Ecuador | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Curaçao | 1.0 | 0% |
Group F
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Japan | 5.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Sweden | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Tunisia | 0.0 | 0% |
Group G
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 5.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Egypt | 5.0 | 100% |
| 3 |  Iran | 3.0 | 0% |
| 4 |  New Zealand | 1.0 | 0% |
Group H
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Cape Verde | 3.0 | 100% |
| 3 |  Uruguay | 2.0 | 0% |
| 4 |  Saudi Arabia | 2.0 | 0% |
Group I
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 9.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Norway | 6.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Senegal | 3.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Iraq | 0.0 | 0% |
Group J
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 9.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Austria | 4.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Algeria | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Jordan | 0.0 | 0% |
Group K
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Portugal | 5.0 | 100% |
| 3 | DR Congo | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Uzbekistan | 0.0 | 0% |
Group L
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Croatia | 6.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Ghana | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Panama | 0.0 | 0% |
Champion odds
Each team's probability of advancing through every knockout round, across 20,000 simulations.
| # | Team | QF | SF | 🏆 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 80.4% | 54.3% | 22.2% |
| 2 | Spain | 60.7% | 42.8% | 15.3% |
| 3 | France | 69.7% | 46.2% | 13.4% |
| 4 | England | 53.0% | 28.6% | 7.2% |
| 5 | Brazil | 55.4% | 29.4% | 6.8% |
| 6 | Portugal | 39.3% | 23.9% | 5.7% |
| 7 | Morocco | 63.7% | 28.7% | 5.2% |
| 8 | Colombia | 53.5% | 22.1% | 4.9% |
| 9 | Norway | 44.6% | 21.8% | 4.2% |
| 10 | Belgium | 60.3% | 22.6% | 4.1% |
| 11 | Switzerland | 46.5% | 17.5% | 3.6% |
| 12 | Mexico | 47.0% | 20.1% | 3.1% |
| 13 | Paraguay | 30.3% | 14.1% | 1.6% |
| 14 | United States | 39.7% | 10.7% | 1.3% |
| 15 | Canada | 36.3% | 11.0% | 0.9% |
| 16 | Egypt | 19.6% | 6.1% | 0.5% |
| 17 | South Korea | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 18 | South Africa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 19 | Czech Republic | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 20 | Qatar | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 21 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 22 | Scotland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 23 | Haiti | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 24 | Australia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 25 | Turkey | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 26 | Germany | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 27 | Ecuador | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 28 | Ivory Coast | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 29 | Curaçao | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 30 | Netherlands | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 31 | Japan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 32 | Tunisia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 33 | Sweden | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 34 | Iran | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 35 | New Zealand | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 36 | Uruguay | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 37 | Saudi Arabia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 38 | Cape Verde | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 39 | Senegal | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 40 | Iraq | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 41 | Austria | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 42 | Algeria | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 43 | Jordan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 44 | DR Congo | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Uzbekistan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Croatia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Panama | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 48 | Ghana | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The bracket
Actual results where they exist; the single most likely outcome — not just a probability — for everything still to be played.
RO32
06-28 · InglewoodPlayed
South Africa0Canada106-29 · FoxboroughPlayed
Germany1Paraguay1Penalties 3–4
06-29 · GuadalupePlayed
Netherlands1Morocco1Penalties 2–3
06-29 · HoustonPlayed
Brazil2Japan106-30 · East RutherfordPlayed
France3Sweden006-30 · ArlingtonPlayed
Ivory Coast1Norway206-30 · Mexico CityPlayed
Mexico2Ecuador007-01 · Santa ClaraPlayed
United States2Bosnia and Herzegovina007-01 · SeattlePlayed
Belgium3Senegal207-01 · AtlantaPlayed
England2DR Congo107-02 · TorontoPlayed
Portugal2Croatia107-02 · InglewoodPlayed
Spain3Austria007-02 · VancouverPlayed
Switzerland2Algeria007-03 · Miami GardensPlayed
Argentina3Cape Verde207-03 · ArlingtonPlayed
Australia1Egypt1Penalties 2–4
07-03 · Kansas CityPlayed
Colombia1Ghana0RO16
07-04 · PhiladelphiaProjected
ParaguayFrance07-04 · HoustonProjected
CanadaMorocco07-05 · East RutherfordProjected
BrazilNorway07-05 · Mexico CityProjected
MexicoEngland07-06 · ArlingtonProjected
PortugalSpain07-06 · SeattleProjected
United StatesBelgium07-07 · AtlantaProjected
ArgentinaEgypt07-07 · VancouverProjected
SwitzerlandColombiaQF
07-09 · BostonProjected
FranceMorocco07-10 · InglewoodProjected
SpainBelgium07-11 · Miami GardensProjected
BrazilEngland07-11 · Kansas CityProjected
ArgentinaColombiaSF
07-14 · ArlingtonProjected
FranceSpain07-15 · AtlantaProjected
EnglandArgentina3rd Place
07-18 · Miami GardensProjected
FranceEnglandFinal
07-19 · East RutherfordProjected
SpainArgentinaEnsemble: 60% Poisson+Elo / 40% Poisson GLM. Probabilistic model for analysis, not betting advice.