←Project overview
South Africa0
Canada1
Germany1
Paraguay1
Netherlands1
Morocco1
Brazil2
Japan1
France3
Sweden0
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
Mexico2
Ecuador0
United States2
Bosnia and Herzegovina0
Belgium3
Senegal2
England2
DR Congo1
Portugal2
Croatia1
Spain3
Austria0
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Argentina3
Cape Verde2
Australia1
Egypt1
Colombia1
Ghana0ParaguayFranceCanadaMoroccoBrazilNorwayMexicoEnglandPortugalSpainUnited StatesBelgiumArgentinaEgyptSwitzerlandColombiaFranceMoroccoSpainBelgiumBrazilEnglandArgentinaColombiaFranceSpainEnglandArgentinaFranceEnglandSpainArgentina
Snapshot 5 · After RO32
Knockout Stage Forecast
Group stage and Round of 32 results are real. From the Round of 16 onward the bracket is predicted, across 20,000 simulations.
What the model thought here
New real results since the previous snapshot: Round of 32. The model called 13 of 16 ties correctly (the favoured team advanced). Biggest surprise: Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay — Model gave Paraguay 38.9% to advance.
Title odds roseSpain12.2% → 15.3%France10.7% → 13.4%Brazil4.1% → 6.8%
Spain12.2% → 15.3%France10.7% → 13.4%Brazil4.1% → 6.8%Title odds fellNetherlands4.8% → 0.0%Germany2.9% → 0.0%Japan2.7% → 0.0%
Netherlands4.8% → 0.0%Germany2.9% → 0.0%Japan2.7% → 0.0%Favourite now: Argentina (22.2%). Spain, who went on to win, sits at 15.3% (#2).
Marked “what actually happened” below is hindsight and was not known to the model at this snapshot.
Match explorer
Pick a stage and a view. Matches already played at this snapshot show the odds the model had before kickoff; matches still to come show this snapshot’s forecast, with the real outcome added afterwards.
Group stage
Knockouts
07-04 · PhiladelphiaPredicted
Paraguay
Elo 1853
vs
France
Elo 2133
90-minute result
18%
25%
58%
Paraguay 18%Draw 25%France 58%
To advance
30%
70%
Paraguay 30%France 70%
What actually happened0–1✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave France 70% to advance. Exact score: 13.1% (#1 most likely).
07-04 · HoustonPredicted
Canada
Elo 1765
vs
Morocco
Elo 1916
90-minute result
20%
33%
47%
Canada 20%Draw 33%Morocco 47%
To advance
36%
64%
Canada 36%Morocco 64%
What actually happened0–3✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave Morocco 64% to advance. Exact score: 4.2%.
07-05 · East RutherfordPredicted
Brazil
Elo 2030
vs
Norway
Elo 1935
90-minute result
41%
27%
32%
Brazil 41%Draw 27%Norway 32%
To advance
55%
45%
Brazil 55%Norway 45%
What actually happened1–2✗ Favourite out
The model gave Norway 45% to advance. Exact score: 7.2%.
07-05 · Mexico CityPredicted
Mexico
Elo 1943
vs
England
Elo 2046
90-minute result
31%
32%
37%
Mexico 31%Draw 32%England 37%
To advance
47%
53%
Mexico 47%England 53%
What actually happened2–3✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave England 53% to advance. Exact score: 1.4%.
07-06 · ArlingtonPredicted
Portugal
Elo 2012
vs
Spain
Elo 2159
90-minute result
26%
27%
47%
Portugal 26%Draw 27%Spain 47%
To advance
39%
61%
Portugal 39%Spain 61%
What actually happened0–1✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave Spain 61% to advance. Exact score: 11.6% (#2 most likely).
07-06 · SeattlePredicted
United States
Elo 1797
vs
Belgium
Elo 1910
90-minute result
27%
25%
47%
United States 27%Draw 25%Belgium 47%
To advance
40%
60%
United States 40%Belgium 60%
What actually happened1–4✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave Belgium 60% to advance. Exact score: 2.4%.
07-07 · AtlantaPredicted
Argentina
Elo 2151
vs
Egypt
Elo 1777
90-minute result
69%
23%
Argentina 69%Draw 23%Egypt 8%
To advance
81%
19%
Argentina 81%Egypt 19%
What actually happened3–2✓ Favourite advanced
The model gave Argentina 81% to advance. Exact score: 1.3%.
07-07 · VancouverPredicted
Switzerland
Elo 1943
vs
Colombia
Elo 2009
90-minute result
33%
28%
39%
Switzerland 33%Draw 28%Colombia 39%
To advance
47%
53%
Switzerland 47%Colombia 53%
What actually happened0–0 (4–3 pens)✗ Favourite out
The model gave Switzerland 47% to advance.
Projected final standings
Expected points and qualification odds across 20,000 simulations.
Top 2 — advance directlyBest 8 third-placed — wildcard
Group A
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 9.0 | 100% |
| 2 | South Africa | 4.0 | 100% |
| 3 |  South Korea | 3.0 | 0% |
| 4 |  Czech Republic | 1.0 | 0% |
Group B
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Canada | 4.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Qatar | 1.0 | 0% |
Group C
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Morocco | 7.0 | 100% |
| 3 |  Scotland | 3.0 | 0% |
| 4 |  Haiti | 0.0 | 0% |
Group D
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 6.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Australia | 4.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Paraguay | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Turkey | 3.0 | 0% |
Group E
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 6.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 6.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Ecuador | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Curaçao | 1.0 | 0% |
Group F
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Japan | 5.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Sweden | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Tunisia | 0.0 | 0% |
Group G
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 5.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Egypt | 5.0 | 100% |
| 3 |  Iran | 3.0 | 0% |
| 4 |  New Zealand | 1.0 | 0% |
Group H
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Cape Verde | 3.0 | 100% |
| 3 |  Uruguay | 2.0 | 0% |
| 4 |  Saudi Arabia | 2.0 | 0% |
Group I
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 9.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Norway | 6.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Senegal | 3.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Iraq | 0.0 | 0% |
Group J
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 9.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Austria | 4.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Algeria | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Jordan | 0.0 | 0% |
Group K
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Portugal | 5.0 | 100% |
| 3 | DR Congo | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Uzbekistan | 0.0 | 0% |
Group L
Final| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 7.0 | 100% |
| 2 | Croatia | 6.0 | 100% |
| 3 | Ghana | 4.0 | 100% |
| 4 |  Panama | 0.0 | 0% |
Champion odds
Each team's probability of advancing through every knockout round, across 20,000 simulations.
| # | Team | QF | SF | 🏆 | Δ 🏆 vs prev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 80.4% | 54.3% | 22.2% | -0.4 |
| 2 | Spain★ | 60.7% | 42.8% | 15.3% | +3.1 |
| 3 | France | 69.7% | 46.2% | 13.4% | +2.7 |
| 4 | England | 53.0% | 28.6% | 7.2% | +0.6 |
| 5 | Brazil | 55.4% | 29.4% | 6.8% | +2.7 |
| 6 | Portugal | 39.3% | 23.9% | 5.7% | +1.5 |
| 7 | Morocco | 63.7% | 28.7% | 5.2% | +2.4 |
| 8 | Colombia | 53.5% | 22.1% | 4.9% | -0.3 |
| 9 | Norway | 44.6% | 21.8% | 4.2% | +1.2 |
| 10 | Belgium | 60.3% | 22.6% | 4.1% | +1.3 |
| 11 | Switzerland | 46.5% | 17.5% | 3.6% | +1.3 |
| 12 | Mexico | 47.0% | 20.1% | 3.1% | +0.7 |
| 13 | Paraguay | 30.3% | 14.1% | 1.6% | +0.8 |
| 14 | United States | 39.7% | 10.7% | 1.3% | 0.0 |
| 15 | Canada | 36.3% | 11.0% | 0.9% | +0.3 |
| 16 | Egypt | 19.6% | 6.1% | 0.5% | +0.2 |
| 17 | South Korea | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 18 | South Africa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 19 | Czech Republic | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 20 | Qatar | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 21 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| 22 | Scotland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 23 | Haiti | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 24 | Australia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.7 |
| 25 | Turkey | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 26 | Germany | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -2.9 |
| 27 | Ecuador | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -2.0 |
| 28 | Ivory Coast | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.3 |
| 29 | Curaçao | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 30 | Netherlands | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -4.8 |
| 31 | Japan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -2.7 |
| 32 | Tunisia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 33 | Sweden | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| 34 | Iran | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 35 | New Zealand | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 36 | Uruguay | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 37 | Saudi Arabia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 38 | Cape Verde | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 39 | Senegal | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2 |
| 40 | Iraq | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 41 | Austria | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.9 |
| 42 | Algeria | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.9 |
| 43 | Jordan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 44 | DR Congo | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| 45 | Uzbekistan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 46 | Croatia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.1 |
| 47 | Panama | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 48 | Ghana | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The bracket
Actual results where they exist; the single most likely outcome — not just a probability — for everything still to be played.
RO32
06-28 · InglewoodPlayed
South Africa0Canada1Advance
31%
69%
South Africa 31%Canada 69%
06-29 · FoxboroughPlayed
Germany1Paraguay1Penalties 3–4
Advance
61%
39%
Germany 61%Paraguay 39%
06-29 · GuadalupePlayed
Netherlands1Morocco1Penalties 2–3
Advance
54%
46%
Netherlands 54%Morocco 46%
06-29 · HoustonPlayed
Brazil2Japan1Advance
53%
47%
Brazil 53%Japan 47%
06-30 · East RutherfordPlayed
France3Sweden0Advance
81%
19%
France 81%Sweden 19%
06-30 · ArlingtonPlayed
Ivory Coast1Norway2Advance
34%
66%
Ivory Coast 34%Norway 66%
06-30 · Mexico CityPlayed
Mexico2Ecuador0Advance
55%
45%
Mexico 55%Ecuador 45%
07-01 · Santa ClaraPlayed
United States2Bosnia and Herzegovina0Advance
71%
29%
United States 71%Bosnia and Herzegovina 29%
07-01 · SeattlePlayed
Belgium3Senegal2Advance
57%
43%
Belgium 57%Senegal 43%
07-01 · AtlantaPlayed
England2DR Congo1Advance
75%
25%
England 75%DR Congo 25%
07-02 · TorontoPlayed
Portugal2Croatia1Advance
61%
39%
Portugal 61%Croatia 39%
07-02 · InglewoodPlayed
Spain3Austria0Advance
72%
29%
Spain 72%Austria 29%
07-02 · VancouverPlayed
Switzerland2Algeria0Advance
58%
42%
Switzerland 58%Algeria 42%
07-03 · Miami GardensPlayed
Argentina3Cape Verde2Advance
92%
Argentina 92%Cape Verde 8%
07-03 · ArlingtonPlayed
Australia1Egypt1Penalties 2–4
Advance
56%
44%
Australia 56%Egypt 44%
07-03 · Kansas CityPlayed
Colombia1Ghana0Advance
85%
15%
Colombia 85%Ghana 15%
RO16
07-04 · PhiladelphiaProjected
ParaguayFranceAdvance
30%
70%
Paraguay 30%France 70%
What actually happened: 0–1 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-04 · HoustonProjected
CanadaMoroccoAdvance
36%
64%
Canada 36%Morocco 64%
What actually happened: 0–3 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-05 · East RutherfordProjected
BrazilNorwayAdvance
55%
45%
Brazil 55%Norway 45%
What actually happened: 1–2 · ✗ Favourite out
07-05 · Mexico CityProjected
MexicoEnglandAdvance
47%
53%
Mexico 47%England 53%
What actually happened: 2–3 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-06 · ArlingtonProjected
PortugalSpainAdvance
39%
61%
Portugal 39%Spain 61%
What actually happened: 0–1 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-06 · SeattleProjected
United StatesBelgiumAdvance
40%
60%
United States 40%Belgium 60%
What actually happened: 1–4 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-07 · AtlantaProjected
ArgentinaEgyptAdvance
81%
19%
Argentina 81%Egypt 19%
What actually happened: 3–2 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-07 · VancouverProjected
SwitzerlandColombiaAdvance
47%
53%
Switzerland 47%Colombia 53%
What actually happened: 0–0 (4–3 pens) · ✗ Favourite out
QF
07-09 · BostonProjected
FranceMoroccoAdvance
61%
39%
France 61%Morocco 39%
What actually happened: 2–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-10 · InglewoodProjected
SpainBelgiumAdvance
67%
33%
Spain 67%Belgium 33%
What actually happened: 2–1 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-11 · Miami GardensProjected
BrazilEnglandAdvance
47%
53%
Brazil 47%England 53%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Norway vs England.
07-11 · Kansas CityProjected
ArgentinaColombiaAdvance
66%
34%
Argentina 66%Colombia 34%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Argentina vs Switzerland.
SF
07-14 · ArlingtonProjected
FranceSpainAdvance
46%
54%
France 46%Spain 54%
What actually happened: 0–2 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-15 · AtlantaProjected
EnglandArgentinaAdvance
40%
60%
England 40%Argentina 60%
What actually happened: 1–2 · ✓ Favourite advanced
3rd Place
07-18 · Miami GardensProjected
FranceEnglandAdvance
53%
47%
France 53%England 47%
What actually happened: 4–6 · ✗ Favourite out
Final
07-19 · East RutherfordProjected
SpainArgentinaAdvance
46%
54%
Spain 46%Argentina 54%
What actually happened: 1–0 (after extra time) · ✗ Favourite out
Ensemble: 60% Poisson+Elo / 40% Poisson GLM. Probabilistic model for analysis, not betting advice.