Snapshot 6 · After RO16

Knockout Stage Forecast

Everything through the Round of 16 is real. Simulation starts at the Quarter-Finals, across 20,000 runs.

What the model thought here

New real results since the previous snapshot: Round of 16. The model called 6 of 8 ties correctly (the favoured team advanced). Biggest surprise: Brazil 1–2 Norway — Model gave Norway 45.2% to advance.

Title odds rose England

England7.2% → 12.9% Spain

Spain15.3% → 20.7% Norway

Norway4.2% → 7.4%

Title odds fell Brazil

Brazil6.8% → 0.0%

Portugal5.7% → 0.0%

Colombia4.9% → 0.0%

Favourite now: Argentina (25.0%). Spain, who went on to win, sits at 20.7% (#2).

Marked “what actually happened” below is hindsight and was not known to the model at this snapshot.

Match explorer

Pick a stage and a view. Matches already played at this snapshot show the odds the model had before kickoff; matches still to come show this snapshot’s forecast, with the real outcome added afterwards.

Group stage

Knockouts

07-09 · BostonPredicted

France

Elo 2143

Morocco

Elo 1947

90-minute result

45%

30%

26%

France 45%Draw 30%Morocco 26%

To advance

60%

40%

France 60%Morocco 40%

What actually happened2–0✓ Favourite advanced

The model gave France 60% to advance. Exact score: 9.0% (#5 most likely).

07-10 · InglewoodPredicted

Spain

Elo 2177

Belgium

Elo 1961

90-minute result

53%

25%

22%

Spain 53%Draw 25%Belgium 22%

To advance

66%

34%

Spain 66%Belgium 34%

What actually happened2–1✓ Favourite advanced

The model gave Spain 66% to advance. Exact score: 9.4% (#4 most likely).

07-11 · Miami GardensPredicted

Norway

Elo 1973

England

Elo 2076

90-minute result

28%

30%

42%

Norway 28%Draw 30%England 42%

To advance

43%

57%

Norway 43%England 57%

What actually happened1–2 (a.e.t.)✓ Favourite advanced

The model gave England 57% to advance.

07-11 · Kansas CityPredicted

Argentina

Elo 2157

Switzerland

Elo 1979

90-minute result

54%

28%

18%

Argentina 54%Draw 28%Switzerland 18%

To advance

68%

32%

Argentina 68%Switzerland 32%

What actually happened3–1 (a.e.t.)✓ Favourite advanced

The model gave Argentina 68% to advance.

Projected final standings

Expected points and qualification odds across 20,000 simulations.

Top 2 — advance directlyBest 8 third-placed — wildcard

Group A

Final

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Mexico	9.0	+6.0	100%
2	South Africa	4.0	-1.0	100%
3	South Korea	3.0	-1.0	0%
4	Czech Republic	1.0	-4.0	0%

Group B

Final

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Switzerland	7.0	+4.0	100%
2	Canada	4.0	+5.0	100%
3	Bosnia and Herzegovina	4.0	-1.0	100%
4	Qatar	1.0	-8.0	0%

Group C

Final

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Brazil	7.0	+6.0	100%
2	Morocco	7.0	+3.0	100%
3	Scotland	3.0	-3.0	0%
4	Haiti	0.0	-6.0	0%

Group D

Final

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	United States	6.0	+4.0	100%
2	Australia	4.0	0.0	100%
3	Paraguay	4.0	-2.0	100%
4	Turkey	3.0	-2.0	0%

Group E

Final

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Germany	6.0	+6.0	100%
2	Ivory Coast	6.0	+2.0	100%
3	Ecuador	4.0	0.0	100%
4	Curaçao	1.0	-8.0	0%

Group F

Final

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Netherlands	7.0	+6.0	100%
2	Japan	5.0	+4.0	100%
3	Sweden	4.0	0.0	100%
4	Tunisia	0.0	-10.0	0%

Group G

Final

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Belgium	5.0	+4.0	100%
2	Egypt	5.0	+2.0	100%
3	Iran	3.0	0.0	0%
4	New Zealand	1.0	-6.0	0%

Group H

Final

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Spain	7.0	+5.0	100%
2	Cape Verde	3.0	0.0	100%
3	Uruguay	2.0	-1.0	0%
4	Saudi Arabia	2.0	-4.0	0%

Group I

Final

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	France	9.0	+8.0	100%
2	Norway	6.0	+1.0	100%
3	Senegal	3.0	+2.0	100%
4	Iraq	0.0	-11.0	0%

Group J

Final

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Argentina	9.0	+7.0	100%
2	Austria	4.0	0.0	100%
3	Algeria	4.0	-2.0	100%
4	Jordan	0.0	-5.0	0%

Group K

Final

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Colombia	7.0	+3.0	100%
2	Portugal	5.0	+5.0	100%
3	DR Congo	4.0	+1.0	100%
4	Uzbekistan	0.0	-9.0	0%

Group L

Final

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	England	7.0	+4.0	100%
2	Croatia	6.0	0.0	100%
3	Ghana	4.0	0.0	100%
4	Panama	0.0	-4.0	0%

Champion odds

Each team's probability of advancing through every knockout round, across 20,000 simulations.

#	Team	RO32	RO16	QF	SF	Final	🏆	Δ 🏆 vs prev.
1	Argentina	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	68.1%	42.5%	25.0%	+2.8
2	Spain★	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	65.1%	37.9%	20.7%	+5.4
3	France	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	59.9%	30.3%	15.2%	+1.8
4	England	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	56.7%	26.1%	12.9%	+5.7
5	Norway	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	43.3%	17.1%	7.4%	+3.2
6	Morocco	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	40.1%	16.7%	6.7%	+1.5
7	Switzerland	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	31.9%	14.3%	6.1%	+2.5
8	Belgium	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	34.9%	15.0%	6.0%	+1.9
9	Mexico	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-3.1
10	South Korea	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
11	South Africa	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
12	Czech Republic	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
13	Canada	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.9
14	Qatar	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
15	Bosnia and Herzegovina	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
16	Brazil	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-6.8
17	Scotland	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
18	Haiti	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
19	United States	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-1.3
20	Australia	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
21	Paraguay	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-1.6
22	Turkey	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
23	Germany	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
24	Ecuador	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
25	Ivory Coast	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
26	Curaçao	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
27	Netherlands	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
28	Japan	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
29	Tunisia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
30	Sweden	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
31	Iran	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
32	Egypt	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.5
33	New Zealand	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
34	Uruguay	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
35	Saudi Arabia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
36	Cape Verde	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
37	Senegal	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
38	Iraq	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
39	Austria	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
40	Algeria	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
41	Jordan	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
42	Portugal	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-5.7
43	Colombia	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-4.9
44	DR Congo	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
45	Uzbekistan	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
46	Croatia	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
47	Panama	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
48	Ghana	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0

The bracket

Actual results where they exist; the single most likely outcome — not just a probability — for everything still to be played.

RO32

06-28 · InglewoodPlayed

South Africa0

Canada1

Advance

31%

69%

South Africa 31%Canada 69%

06-29 · FoxboroughPlayed

Germany1

Paraguay1

Penalties 3–4

Advance

61%

39%

Germany 61%Paraguay 39%

06-29 · GuadalupePlayed

Netherlands1

Morocco1

Penalties 2–3

Advance

54%

46%

Netherlands 54%Morocco 46%

06-29 · HoustonPlayed

Brazil2

Japan1

Advance

53%

47%

Brazil 53%Japan 47%

06-30 · East RutherfordPlayed

France3

Sweden0

Advance

81%

19%

France 81%Sweden 19%

06-30 · ArlingtonPlayed

Ivory Coast1

Norway2

Advance

34%

66%

Ivory Coast 34%Norway 66%

06-30 · Mexico CityPlayed

Mexico2

Ecuador0

Advance

55%

45%

Mexico 55%Ecuador 45%

07-01 · Santa ClaraPlayed

United States2

Bosnia and Herzegovina0

Advance

71%

29%

United States 71%Bosnia and Herzegovina 29%

07-01 · SeattlePlayed

Belgium3

Senegal2

Advance

57%

43%

Belgium 57%Senegal 43%

07-01 · AtlantaPlayed

England2

DR Congo1

Advance

75%

25%

England 75%DR Congo 25%

07-02 · TorontoPlayed

Portugal2

Croatia1

Advance

61%

39%

Portugal 61%Croatia 39%

07-02 · InglewoodPlayed

Spain3

Austria0

Advance

72%

29%

Spain 72%Austria 29%

07-02 · VancouverPlayed

Switzerland2

Algeria0

Advance

58%

42%

Switzerland 58%Algeria 42%

07-03 · Miami GardensPlayed

Argentina3

Cape Verde2

Advance

92%

Argentina 92%Cape Verde 8%

07-03 · ArlingtonPlayed

Australia1

Egypt1

Penalties 2–4

Advance

56%

44%

Australia 56%Egypt 44%

07-03 · Kansas CityPlayed

Colombia1

Ghana0

Advance

85%

15%

Colombia 85%Ghana 15%

RO16

07-04 · PhiladelphiaPlayed

Paraguay0

France1

Advance

30%

70%

Paraguay 30%France 70%

07-04 · HoustonPlayed

Canada0

Morocco3

Advance

36%

64%

Canada 36%Morocco 64%

07-05 · East RutherfordPlayed

Brazil1

Norway2

Advance

55%

45%

Brazil 55%Norway 45%

07-05 · Mexico CityPlayed

Mexico2

England3

Advance

47%

53%

Mexico 47%England 53%

07-06 · ArlingtonPlayed

Portugal0

Spain1

Advance

39%

61%

Portugal 39%Spain 61%

07-06 · SeattlePlayed

United States1

Belgium4

Advance

40%

60%

United States 40%Belgium 60%

07-07 · AtlantaPlayed

Argentina3

Egypt2

Advance

81%

19%

Argentina 81%Egypt 19%

07-07 · VancouverPlayed

Switzerland0

Colombia0

Penalties 4–3

Advance

47%

53%

Switzerland 47%Colombia 53%

QF

07-09 · BostonProjected

France

Morocco

Advance

60%

40%

France 60%Morocco 40%

What actually happened: 2–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced

07-10 · InglewoodProjected

Spain

Belgium

Advance

66%

34%

Spain 66%Belgium 34%

What actually happened: 2–1 · ✓ Favourite advanced

07-11 · Miami GardensProjected

Norway

England

Advance

43%

57%

Norway 43%England 57%

What actually happened: 1–2 (after extra time) · ✓ Favourite advanced

07-11 · Kansas CityProjected

Argentina

Switzerland

Advance

68%

32%

Argentina 68%Switzerland 32%

What actually happened: 3–1 (after extra time) · ✓ Favourite advanced

SF

07-14 · ArlingtonProjected

France

Spain

Advance

45%

55%

France 45%Spain 55%

What actually happened: 0–2 · ✓ Favourite advanced

07-15 · AtlantaProjected

England

Argentina

Advance

41%

59%

England 41%Argentina 59%

What actually happened: 1–2 · ✓ Favourite advanced

3rd Place

07-18 · Miami GardensProjected

France

England

Advance

52%

48%

France 52%England 48%

What actually happened: 4–6 · ✗ Favourite out

Final

07-19 · East RutherfordProjected

Spain

Argentina

Advance

46%

54%

Spain 46%Argentina 54%

What actually happened: 1–0 (after extra time) · ✗ Favourite out

Ensemble: 60% Poisson+Elo / 40% Poisson GLM. Probabilistic model for analysis, not betting advice.