Snapshot 1 · Pre-tournament

Group Stage Forecast

Nothing has kicked off yet — every group match and the full knockout bracket, all the way to the champion, is predicted from scratch, across 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

What the model thought here

Before a ball is kicked, the model’s favourites are Argentina (15.8%), Spain (13.7%) and France (7.1%). The team that would eventually win, Spain, starts with 13.7% — ranked #2.

Favourite now: Argentina (15.8%).

Marked “what actually happened” below is hindsight and was not known to the model at this snapshot.

Match explorer

Pick a stage and a view. Matches already played at this snapshot show the odds the model had before kickoff; matches still to come show this snapshot’s forecast, with the real outcome added afterwards.

Group stage

Knockouts

06-11 · Group APredicted

Mexico

Elo 1875

South Africa

Elo 1517

77%

16%

Mexico 77%Draw 16%South Africa 6%

What actually happened2–0✓ Called

The model gave this result 77%. Exact score: 15.4% (#1 most likely).

06-11 · Group APredicted

South Korea

Elo 1758

Czech Republic

Elo 1740

37%

29%

34%

South Korea 37%Draw 29%Czech Republic 34%

What actually happened2–1✓ Called

The model gave this result 37%. Exact score: 8.2% (#5 most likely).

06-12 · Group BPredicted

Canada

Elo 1788

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Elo 1595

63%

24%

13%

Canada 63%Draw 24%Bosnia and Herzegovina 13%

What actually happened1–1✗ Missed

The model gave this result 24%. Exact score: 10.8% (#3 most likely).

06-13 · Group BPredicted

Qatar

Elo 1421

Switzerland

Elo 1891

87%

Qatar 3%Draw 10%Switzerland 87%

What actually happened1–1✗ Missed

The model gave this result 10%. Exact score: 4.6%.

06-13 · Group CPredicted

Brazil

Elo 1991

Morocco

Elo 1827

43%

29%

27%

Brazil 43%Draw 29%Morocco 27%

What actually happened1–1✗ Missed

The model gave this result 29%. Exact score: 13.3% (#1 most likely).

06-13 · Group CPredicted

Haiti

Elo 1548

Scotland

Elo 1782

14%

22%

63%

Haiti 14%Draw 22%Scotland 63%

What actually happened0–1✓ Called

The model gave this result 63%. Exact score: 11.5% (#2 most likely).

06-12 · Group DPredicted

United States

Elo 1726

Paraguay

Elo 1834

32%

28%

40%

United States 32%Draw 28%Paraguay 40%

What actually happened4–1✗ Missed

The model gave this result 32%. Exact score: 0.8%.

06-13 · Group DPredicted

Australia

Elo 1777

Turkey

Elo 1911

26%

28%

46%

Australia 26%Draw 28%Turkey 46%

What actually happened2–0✗ Missed

The model gave this result 26%. Exact score: 4.5%.

06-14 · Group EPredicted

Germany

Elo 1932

Curaçao

Elo 1434

89%

Germany 89%Draw 8%Curaçao 3%

What actually happened7–1✓ Called

The model gave this result 89%. Exact score outside the model’s printed grid (more than 5 goals by a side).

06-14 · Group EPredicted

Ivory Coast

Elo 1695

Ecuador

Elo 1938

16%

32%

52%

Ivory Coast 16%Draw 32%Ecuador 52%

What actually happened1–0✗ Missed

The model gave this result 16%. Exact score: 8.3% (#5 most likely).

06-14 · Group FPredicted

Netherlands

Elo 1948

Japan

Elo 1906

35%

31%

35%

Netherlands 35%Draw 31%Japan 35%

What actually happened2–2✗ Missed

The model gave this result 31%. Exact score: 3.9%.

06-14 · Group FPredicted

Sweden

Elo 1712

Tunisia

Elo 1628

46%

27%

26%

Sweden 46%Draw 27%Tunisia 26%

What actually happened5–1✓ Called

The model gave this result 46%. Exact score: 0.5%.

06-15 · Group GPredicted

Belgium

Elo 1894

Egypt

Elo 1696

56%

27%

17%

Belgium 56%Draw 27%Egypt 17%

What actually happened1–1✗ Missed

The model gave this result 27%. Exact score: 12.2% (#2 most likely).

06-15 · Group GPredicted

Iran

Elo 1772

New Zealand

Elo 1562

60%

25%

15%

Iran 60%Draw 25%New Zealand 15%

What actually happened2–2✗ Missed

The model gave this result 25%. Exact score: 3.3%.

06-15 · Group HPredicted

Spain

Elo 2157

Cape Verde

Elo 1578

89%

Spain 89%Draw 8%Cape Verde 2%

What actually happened0–0✗ Missed

The model gave this result 8%. Exact score: 2.7%.

06-15 · Group HPredicted

Saudi Arabia

Elo 1576

Uruguay

Elo 1892

12%

25%

63%

Saudi Arabia 12%Draw 25%Uruguay 63%

What actually happened1–1✗ Missed

The model gave this result 25%. Exact score: 10.3% (#4 most likely).

06-16 · Group IPredicted

France

Elo 2063

Senegal

Elo 1860

54%

26%

21%

France 54%Draw 26%Senegal 21%

What actually happened3–1✓ Called

The model gave this result 54%. Exact score: 5.2%.

06-16 · Group IPredicted

Iraq

Elo 1607

Norway

Elo 1914

20%

70%

Iraq 10%Draw 20%Norway 70%

What actually happened1–4✓ Called

The model gave this result 70%. Exact score: 2.9%.

06-16 · Group JPredicted

Argentina

Elo 2115

Algeria

Elo 1772

63%

25%

Argentina 63%Draw 25%Algeria 12%

What actually happened3–0✓ Called

The model gave this result 63%. Exact score: 7.9% (#5 most likely).

06-16 · Group JPredicted

Austria

Elo 1830

Jordan

Elo 1680

58%

24%

17%

Austria 58%Draw 24%Jordan 17%

What actually happened3–1✓ Called

The model gave this result 58%. Exact score: 5.4%.

06-17 · Group KPredicted

Portugal

Elo 1989

DR Congo

Elo 1652

63%

25%

12%

Portugal 63%Draw 25%DR Congo 12%

What actually happened1–1✗ Missed

The model gave this result 25%. Exact score: 10.2% (#4 most likely).

06-17 · Group KPredicted

Uzbekistan

Elo 1714

Colombia

Elo 1982

13%

23%

63%

Uzbekistan 13%Draw 23%Colombia 63%

What actually happened1–3✓ Called

The model gave this result 63%. Exact score: 5.6%.

06-17 · Group LPredicted

England

Elo 2024

Croatia

Elo 1912

48%

29%

23%

England 48%Draw 29%Croatia 23%

What actually happened4–2✓ Called

The model gave this result 48%. Exact score: 0.6%.

06-17 · Group LPredicted

Ghana

Elo 1510

Panama

Elo 1730

26%

48%

Ghana 26%Draw 26%Panama 48%

What actually happened1–0✗ Missed

The model gave this result 26%. Exact score: 7.7%.

Projected final standings

Expected points and qualification odds across 20,000 simulations.

Top 2 — advance directlyBest 8 third-placed — wildcard

Group A

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Mexico	6.6	+3.7	96.3%
2	South Korea	4.1	0.0	73.6%
3	Czech Republic	3.9	-0.3	70.5%
4	South Africa	1.9	-3.5	27.1%

Group B

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Switzerland	6.4	+4.0	97.3%
2	Canada	6.0	+3.1	95.7%
3	Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.2	-1.5	58.3%
4	Qatar	1.2	-5.7	12.2%

Group C

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Brazil	6.2	+3.5	95.6%
2	Morocco	5.0	+1.4	86.8%
3	Scotland	4.0	-0.2	72.9%
4	Haiti	1.4	-4.8	16.5%

Group D

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Turkey	4.8	+1.1	80.6%
2	Paraguay	4.2	+0.2	71.2%
3	United States	3.7	-0.6	62.5%
4	Australia	3.6	-0.7	60.1%

Group E

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Germany	6.0	+3.7	96.6%
2	Ecuador	5.9	+3.0	95.6%
3	Ivory Coast	3.9	-0.2	73.9%
4	Curaçao	0.9	-6.4	7.6%

Group F

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Netherlands	5.8	+2.6	92.1%
2	Japan	5.6	+2.2	91%
3	Sweden	3.0	-1.7	52.9%
4	Tunisia	2.1	-3.0	31.6%

Group G

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Belgium	6.1	+3.1	94%
2	Iran	4.6	+0.7	79.6%
3	Egypt	3.7	-0.5	66.2%
4	New Zealand	2.0	-3.2	28.1%

Group H

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Spain	7.5	+6.2	99.5%
2	Uruguay	5.1	+1.4	88.9%
3	Saudi Arabia	2.3	-3.5	34.1%
4	Cape Verde	2.0	-4.1	27.4%

Group I

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	France	6.0	+2.9	93.6%
2	Norway	5.1	+1.4	86.5%
3	Senegal	4.0	-0.1	72.6%
4	Iraq	1.5	-4.2	18.2%

Group J

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Argentina	6.8	+4.2	97.6%
2	Austria	4.1	+0.0	73.9%
3	Algeria	3.8	-0.4	68.6%
4	Jordan	1.9	-3.8	26.4%

Group K

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Portugal	5.8	+2.4	91.8%
2	Colombia	5.5	+2.1	90.1%
3	Uzbekistan	2.6	-2.2	41.7%
4	DR Congo	2.5	-2.3	40.1%

Group L

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	England	6.6	+4.0	97.3%
2	Croatia	5.3	+1.9	89.9%
3	Panama	2.9	-2.0	50.3%
4	Ghana	1.8	-4.0	25.3%

Champion odds

Each team's probability of advancing through every knockout round, across 20,000 simulations.

#	Team	RO32	RO16	QF	SF	Final	🏆
1	Argentina	97.6%	68.0%	51.0%	36.0%	24.3%	15.8%
2	Spain★	99.5%	66.7%	45.9%	33.4%	22.1%	13.7%
3	France	93.6%	62.7%	39.0%	23.9%	13.1%	7.1%
4	England	97.3%	63.1%	37.3%	22.4%	12.3%	6.6%
5	Portugal	91.8%	60.9%	34.0%	18.8%	10.0%	5.2%
6	Brazil	95.6%	56.4%	32.7%	18.7%	9.3%	4.8%
7	Colombia	90.1%	56.9%	30.6%	16.2%	8.7%	4.1%
8	Germany	96.6%	56.2%	30.1%	16.3%	8.2%	3.9%
9	Netherlands	92.1%	50.5%	30.0%	16.1%	7.8%	3.8%
10	Ecuador	95.6%	55.1%	29.5%	16.2%	7.8%	3.7%
11	Japan	91.0%	49.1%	28.5%	14.9%	7.3%	3.5%
12	Norway	86.5%	50.1%	27.4%	14.6%	7.0%	3.5%
13	Belgium	94.0%	60.4%	32.9%	14.3%	6.9%	3.1%
14	Switzerland	97.3%	62.4%	31.8%	14.4%	6.5%	2.9%
15	Mexico	96.3%	61.2%	32.1%	14.4%	6.2%	2.6%
16	Morocco	86.8%	42.7%	22.0%	10.4%	4.7%	2.0%
17	Turkey	80.6%	49.1%	24.2%	10.5%	4.8%	2.0%
18	Croatia	89.9%	45.1%	20.2%	9.5%	4.2%	1.7%
19	Uruguay	88.9%	35.7%	18.1%	8.6%	3.8%	1.6%
20	Canada	95.7%	54.2%	23.8%	8.8%	3.2%	1.1%
21	Paraguay	71.2%	38.3%	16.5%	6.7%	2.9%	1.1%
22	Senegal	72.6%	34.1%	16.0%	6.8%	2.7%	1.1%
23	Austria	73.9%	30.8%	15.3%	6.9%	3.0%	1.1%
24	Algeria	68.6%	26.6%	12.3%	5.1%	2.1%	0.8%
25	Iran	79.6%	36.6%	13.6%	4.8%	1.7%	0.6%
26	United States	62.5%	30.3%	11.6%	3.9%	1.4%	0.5%
27	Scotland	72.9%	28.2%	11.3%	4.2%	1.4%	0.4%
28	Australia	60.1%	28.6%	10.9%	3.8%	1.3%	0.4%
29	South Korea	73.6%	32.0%	11.0%	3.3%	0.9%	0.3%
30	Czech Republic	70.5%	29.6%	9.9%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%
31	Ivory Coast	73.9%	26.9%	9.5%	2.9%	0.9%	0.2%
32	Egypt	66.2%	25.4%	8.0%	2.4%	0.8%	0.2%
33	Sweden	52.9%	15.2%	5.1%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%
34	DR Congo	40.1%	13.4%	4.0%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
35	Uzbekistan	41.7%	13.9%	4.2%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%
36	Panama	50.3%	13.3%	3.4%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%
37	South Africa	27.1%	6.7%	1.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
38	Qatar	12.2%	1.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
39	Bosnia and Herzegovina	58.3%	18.0%	4.6%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%
40	Haiti	16.5%	2.7%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
41	Curaçao	7.6%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
42	Tunisia	31.6%	7.2%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
43	New Zealand	28.1%	6.3%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
44	Saudi Arabia	34.1%	6.5%	1.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
45	Cape Verde	27.4%	4.7%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
46	Iraq	18.2%	4.4%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
47	Jordan	26.4%	6.3%	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
48	Ghana	25.3%	4.8%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

The bracket

Actual results where they exist; the single most likely outcome — not just a probability — for everything still to be played.

RO32

06-28 · InglewoodProjected

South Korea

Canada

Advance

44%

56%

South Korea 44%Canada 56%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was South Africa vs Canada.

06-29 · FoxboroughProjected

Germany

Scotland

Advance

67%

33%

Germany 67%Scotland 33%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Germany vs Paraguay.

06-29 · GuadalupeProjected

Netherlands

Morocco

Advance

55%

45%

Netherlands 55%Morocco 45%

What actually happened: 1–1 (2–3 pens) · ✗ Favourite out

06-29 · HoustonProjected

Brazil

Japan

Advance

53%

47%

Brazil 53%Japan 47%

What actually happened: 2–1 · ✓ Favourite advanced

06-30 · East RutherfordProjected

France

United States

Advance

73%

27%

France 73%United States 27%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was France vs Sweden.

06-30 · ArlingtonProjected

Ecuador

Norway

Advance

51%

49%

Ecuador 51%Norway 49%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Ivory Coast vs Norway.

06-30 · Mexico CityProjected

Mexico

Ivory Coast

Advance

70%

30%

Mexico 70%Ivory Coast 30%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Mexico vs Ecuador.

07-01 · Santa ClaraProjected

Turkey

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Advance

77%

23%

Turkey 77%Bosnia and Herzegovina 23%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina.

07-01 · SeattleProjected

Belgium

Czech Republic

Advance

70%

30%

Belgium 70%Czech Republic 30%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Belgium vs Senegal.

07-01 · AtlantaProjected

England

Algeria

Advance

67%

33%

England 67%Algeria 33%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was England vs DR Congo.

07-02 · TorontoProjected

Colombia

Croatia

Advance

58%

42%

Colombia 58%Croatia 42%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Portugal vs Croatia.

07-02 · InglewoodProjected

Spain

Austria

Advance

72%

28%

Spain 72%Austria 28%

What actually happened: 3–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced

07-02 · VancouverProjected

Switzerland

Egypt

Advance

69%

31%

Switzerland 69%Egypt 31%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Switzerland vs Algeria.

07-03 · Miami GardensProjected

Argentina

Uruguay

Advance

71%

29%

Argentina 71%Uruguay 29%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Argentina vs Cape Verde.

07-03 · ArlingtonProjected

Paraguay

Iran

Advance

55%

45%

Paraguay 55%Iran 45%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Australia vs Egypt.

07-03 · Kansas CityProjected

Portugal

Senegal

Advance

63%

37%

Portugal 63%Senegal 37%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Colombia vs Ghana.

RO16

07-04 · PhiladelphiaProjected

Germany

France

Advance

43%

57%

Germany 43%France 57%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Paraguay vs France.

07-04 · HoustonProjected

Canada

Netherlands

Advance

36%

64%

Canada 36%Netherlands 64%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Canada vs Morocco.

07-05 · East RutherfordProjected

Brazil

Ecuador

Advance

53%

47%

Brazil 53%Ecuador 47%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Brazil vs Norway.

07-05 · Mexico CityProjected

Mexico

England

Advance

44%

56%

Mexico 44%England 56%

What actually happened: 2–3 · ✓ Favourite advanced

07-06 · ArlingtonProjected

Colombia

Spain

Advance

35%

65%

Colombia 35%Spain 65%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Portugal vs Spain.

07-06 · SeattleProjected

Turkey

Belgium

Advance

47%

53%

Turkey 47%Belgium 53%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was United States vs Belgium.

07-07 · AtlantaProjected

Argentina

Paraguay

Advance

75%

25%

Argentina 75%Paraguay 25%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Argentina vs Egypt.

07-07 · VancouverProjected

Switzerland

Portugal

Advance

43%

57%

Switzerland 43%Portugal 57%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Switzerland vs Colombia.

QF

07-09 · BostonProjected

France

Netherlands

Advance

57%

43%

France 57%Netherlands 43%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was France vs Morocco.

07-10 · InglewoodProjected

Spain

Belgium

Advance

68%

32%

Spain 68%Belgium 32%

What actually happened: 2–1 · ✓ Favourite advanced

07-11 · Miami GardensProjected

Brazil

England

Advance

46%

54%

Brazil 46%England 54%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Norway vs England.

07-11 · Kansas CityProjected

Argentina

Portugal

Advance

64%

36%

Argentina 64%Portugal 36%

This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Argentina vs Switzerland.

SF

07-14 · ArlingtonProjected

France

Spain

Advance

42%

58%

France 42%Spain 58%

What actually happened: 0–2 · ✓ Favourite advanced

07-15 · AtlantaProjected

England

Argentina

Advance

40%

60%

England 40%Argentina 60%

What actually happened: 1–2 · ✓ Favourite advanced

3rd Place

07-18 · Miami GardensProjected

France

England

Advance

50%

France 50%England 50%

What actually happened: 4–6 · ✗ Favourite out

Final

07-19 · East RutherfordProjected

Spain

Argentina

Advance

48%

52%

Spain 48%Argentina 52%

What actually happened: 1–0 (after extra time) · ✗ Favourite out

Ensemble: 60% Poisson+Elo / 40% Poisson GLM. Probabilistic model for analysis, not betting advice.