←Project overview
South Korea
Canada
Germany
Scotland
Netherlands
Morocco
Brazil
Japan
France
United States
Ecuador
Norway
Mexico
Ivory Coast
Turkey
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Belgium
Czech Republic
England
Algeria
Colombia
Croatia
Spain
Austria
Switzerland
Egypt
Argentina
Uruguay
Paraguay
Iran
Portugal
SenegalGermanyFranceCanadaNetherlandsBrazilEcuadorMexicoEnglandColombiaSpainTurkeyBelgiumArgentinaParaguaySwitzerlandPortugalFranceNetherlandsSpainBelgiumBrazilEnglandArgentinaPortugalFranceSpainEnglandArgentinaFranceEnglandSpainArgentina
Stage 1 · Pre-tournament
Group Stage Forecast
Nothing has kicked off yet — every group match and the full knockout bracket, all the way to the champion, is predicted from scratch, across 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Match predictions
Mexico
Elo 1875
06-11
vs
South Africa
Elo 1517
77%
16%
Win 77%Draw 16%Win 6%
Likely2-0
xG2.32–0.52
O 2.554%
BTTS37%
South Korea
Elo 1758
06-11
vs
Czech Republic
Elo 1740
37%
29%
34%
Win 37%Draw 29%Win 34%
Likely1-1
xG1.27–1.2
O 2.545%
BTTS51%
Canada
Elo 1788
06-12
vs
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Elo 1595
63%
24%
13%
Win 63%Draw 24%Win 13%
Likely1-0
xG1.74–0.66
O 2.543%
BTTS40%
Qatar
Elo 1421
06-13
vs
Switzerland
Elo 1891
87%
Win 3%Draw 10%Win 87%
Likely0-3
xG0.49–3.13
O 2.569%
BTTS37%
Brazil
Elo 1991
06-13
vs
Morocco
Elo 1827
43%
29%
27%
Win 43%Draw 29%Win 27%
Likely1-1
xG1.3–0.95
O 2.539%
BTTS44%
Haiti
Elo 1548
06-13
vs
Scotland
Elo 1782
14%
22%
63%
Win 14%Draw 22%Win 63%
Likely0-2
xG0.83–1.97
O 2.553%
BTTS49%
United States
Elo 1726
06-12
vs
Paraguay
Elo 1834
32%
28%
40%
Win 32%Draw 28%Win 40%
Likely1-1
xG1.17–1.36
O 2.546%
BTTS52%
Australia
Elo 1777
06-13
vs
Turkey
Elo 1911
26%
28%
46%
Win 26%Draw 28%Win 46%
Likely1-1
xG0.98–1.4
O 2.543%
BTTS48%
Germany
Elo 1932
06-14
vs
Curaçao
Elo 1434
89%
Win 89%Draw 8%Win 3%
Likely3-0
xG3.4–0.49
O 2.573%
BTTS37%
Ivory Coast
Elo 1695
06-14
vs
Ecuador
Elo 1938
16%
32%
52%
Win 16%Draw 32%Win 52%
Likely0-0
xG0.62–1.36
O 2.533%
BTTS34%
Netherlands
Elo 1948
06-14
vs
Japan
Elo 1906
35%
31%
35%
Win 35%Draw 31%Win 35%
Likely1-1
xG1.09–1.08
O 2.537%
BTTS44%
Sweden
Elo 1712
06-14
vs
Tunisia
Elo 1628
46%
27%
26%
Win 46%Draw 27%Win 26%
Likely1-1
xG1.5–1.07
O 2.547%
BTTS52%
Belgium
Elo 1894
06-15
vs
Egypt
Elo 1696
56%
27%
17%
Win 56%Draw 27%Win 17%
Likely1-0
xG1.56–0.76
O 2.541%
BTTS42%
Iran
Elo 1772
06-15
vs
New Zealand
Elo 1562
60%
25%
15%
Win 60%Draw 25%Win 15%
Likely1-0
xG1.69–0.71
O 2.543%
BTTS42%
Spain
Elo 2157
06-15
vs
Cape Verde
Elo 1578
89%
Win 89%Draw 8%Win 2%
Likely3-0
xG3.23–0.45
O 2.571%
BTTS35%
Saudi Arabia
Elo 1576
06-15
vs
Uruguay
Elo 1892
12%
25%
63%
Win 12%Draw 25%Win 63%
Likely0-1
xG0.59–1.69
O 2.540%
BTTS36%
France
Elo 2063
06-16
vs
Senegal
Elo 1860
54%
26%
21%
Win 54%Draw 26%Win 21%
Likely1-1
xG1.64–0.92
O 2.547%
BTTS49%
Iraq
Elo 1607
06-16
vs
Norway
Elo 1914
20%
70%
Win 10%Draw 20%Win 70%
Likely0-2
xG0.6–1.99
O 2.548%
BTTS39%
Argentina
Elo 2115
06-16
vs
Algeria
Elo 1772
63%
25%
Win 63%Draw 25%Win 12%
Likely1-0
xG1.72–0.57
O 2.540%
BTTS36%
Austria
Elo 1830
06-16
vs
Jordan
Elo 1680
58%
24%
17%
Win 58%Draw 24%Win 17%
Likely1-0
xG1.74–0.83
O 2.547%
BTTS46%
Portugal
Elo 1989
06-17
vs
DR Congo
Elo 1652
63%
25%
12%
Win 63%Draw 25%Win 12%
Likely1-0
xG1.74–0.6
O 2.541%
BTTS37%
Uzbekistan
Elo 1714
06-17
vs
Colombia
Elo 1982
13%
23%
63%
Win 13%Draw 23%Win 63%
Likely0-1
xG0.69–1.8
O 2.545%
BTTS42%
England
Elo 2024
06-17
vs
Croatia
Elo 1912
48%
29%
23%
Win 48%Draw 29%Win 23%
Likely1-0
xG1.37–0.85
O 2.538%
BTTS43%
Ghana
Elo 1510
06-17
vs
Panama
Elo 1730
26%
26%
48%
Win 26%Draw 26%Win 48%
Likely1-1
xG1.01–1.49
O 2.546%
BTTS48%
Projected final standings
Expected points and qualification odds across 20,000 simulations.
Top 2 — advance directlyBest 8 third-placed — wildcard
Group A
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 6.6 | 96.3% |
| 2 | South Korea | 4.1 | 73.6% |
| 3 | Czech Republic | 3.9 | 70.5% |
| 4 |  South Africa | 1.9 | 27.1% |
Group B
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 6.4 | 97.3% |
| 2 | Canada | 6.0 | 95.7% |
| 3 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3.2 | 58.3% |
| 4 |  Qatar | 1.2 | 12.2% |
Group C
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 6.2 | 95.6% |
| 2 | Morocco | 5.0 | 86.8% |
| 3 | Scotland | 4.0 | 72.9% |
| 4 |  Haiti | 1.4 | 16.5% |
Group D
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkey | 4.8 | 80.6% |
| 2 | Paraguay | 4.2 | 71.2% |
| 3 | United States | 3.7 | 62.5% |
| 4 |  Australia | 3.6 | 60.1% |
Group E
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 6.0 | 96.6% |
| 2 | Ecuador | 5.9 | 95.6% |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3.9 | 73.9% |
| 4 |  Curaçao | 0.9 | 7.6% |
Group F
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 5.8 | 92.1% |
| 2 | Japan | 5.6 | 91% |
| 3 |  Sweden | 3.0 | 52.9% |
| 4 |  Tunisia | 2.1 | 31.6% |
Group G
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 6.1 | 94% |
| 2 | Iran | 4.6 | 79.6% |
| 3 | Egypt | 3.7 | 66.2% |
| 4 |  New Zealand | 2.0 | 28.1% |
Group H
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 7.5 | 99.5% |
| 2 | Uruguay | 5.1 | 88.9% |
| 3 |  Saudi Arabia | 2.3 | 34.1% |
| 4 |  Cape Verde | 2.0 | 27.4% |
Group I
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 6.0 | 93.6% |
| 2 | Norway | 5.1 | 86.5% |
| 3 | Senegal | 4.0 | 72.6% |
| 4 |  Iraq | 1.5 | 18.2% |
Group J
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 6.8 | 97.6% |
| 2 | Austria | 4.1 | 73.9% |
| 3 | Algeria | 3.8 | 68.6% |
| 4 |  Jordan | 1.9 | 26.4% |
Group K
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 5.8 | 91.8% |
| 2 | Colombia | 5.5 | 90.1% |
| 3 |  Uzbekistan | 2.6 | 41.7% |
| 4 |  DR Congo | 2.5 | 40.1% |
Group L
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 6.6 | 97.3% |
| 2 | Croatia | 5.3 | 89.9% |
| 3 |  Panama | 2.9 | 50.3% |
| 4 |  Ghana | 1.8 | 25.3% |
Champion odds
Each team's probability of advancing through every knockout round, across 20,000 simulations.
| # | Team | QF | SF | 🏆 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 51.0% | 36.0% | 15.8% |
| 2 | Spain | 45.9% | 33.4% | 13.7% |
| 3 | France | 39.0% | 23.9% | 7.1% |
| 4 | England | 37.3% | 22.4% | 6.6% |
| 5 | Portugal | 34.0% | 18.8% | 5.2% |
| 6 | Brazil | 32.7% | 18.7% | 4.8% |
| 7 | Colombia | 30.6% | 16.2% | 4.1% |
| 8 | Germany | 30.1% | 16.3% | 3.9% |
| 9 | Netherlands | 30.0% | 16.1% | 3.8% |
| 10 | Ecuador | 29.5% | 16.2% | 3.7% |
| 11 | Japan | 28.5% | 14.9% | 3.5% |
| 12 | Norway | 27.4% | 14.6% | 3.5% |
| 13 | Belgium | 32.9% | 14.3% | 3.1% |
| 14 | Switzerland | 31.8% | 14.4% | 2.9% |
| 15 | Mexico | 32.1% | 14.4% | 2.6% |
| 16 | Morocco | 22.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% |
| 17 | Turkey | 24.2% | 10.5% | 2.0% |
| 18 | Croatia | 20.2% | 9.5% | 1.7% |
| 19 | Uruguay | 18.1% | 8.6% | 1.6% |
| 20 | Canada | 23.8% | 8.8% | 1.1% |
| 21 | Paraguay | 16.5% | 6.7% | 1.1% |
| 22 | Senegal | 16.0% | 6.8% | 1.1% |
| 23 | Austria | 15.3% | 6.9% | 1.1% |
| 24 | Algeria | 12.3% | 5.1% | 0.8% |
| 25 | Iran | 13.6% | 4.8% | 0.6% |
| 26 | United States | 11.6% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| 27 | Scotland | 11.3% | 4.2% | 0.4% |
| 28 | Australia | 10.9% | 3.8% | 0.4% |
| 29 | South Korea | 11.0% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| 30 | Czech Republic | 9.9% | 2.9% | 0.2% |
| 31 | Ivory Coast | 9.5% | 2.9% | 0.2% |
| 32 | Egypt | 8.0% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| 33 | Sweden | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| 34 | DR Congo | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| 35 | Uzbekistan | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| 36 | Panama | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 37 | South Africa | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 38 | Qatar | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 39 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| 40 | Haiti | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 41 | Curaçao | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 42 | Tunisia | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 43 | New Zealand | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 44 | Saudi Arabia | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Cape Verde | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Iraq | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Jordan | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 48 | Ghana | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The bracket
Actual results where they exist; the single most likely outcome — not just a probability — for everything still to be played.
RO32
06-28 · InglewoodProjected
South KoreaCanada06-29 · FoxboroughProjected
GermanyScotland06-29 · GuadalupeProjected
NetherlandsMorocco06-29 · HoustonProjected
BrazilJapan06-30 · East RutherfordProjected
FranceUnited States06-30 · ArlingtonProjected
EcuadorNorway06-30 · Mexico CityProjected
MexicoIvory Coast07-01 · Santa ClaraProjected
TurkeyBosnia and Herzegovina07-01 · SeattleProjected
BelgiumCzech Republic07-01 · AtlantaProjected
EnglandAlgeria07-02 · TorontoProjected
ColombiaCroatia07-02 · InglewoodProjected
SpainAustria07-02 · VancouverProjected
SwitzerlandEgypt07-03 · Miami GardensProjected
ArgentinaUruguay07-03 · ArlingtonProjected
ParaguayIran07-03 · Kansas CityProjected
PortugalSenegalRO16
07-04 · PhiladelphiaProjected
GermanyFrance07-04 · HoustonProjected
CanadaNetherlands07-05 · East RutherfordProjected
BrazilEcuador07-05 · Mexico CityProjected
MexicoEngland07-06 · ArlingtonProjected
ColombiaSpain07-06 · SeattleProjected
TurkeyBelgium07-07 · AtlantaProjected
ArgentinaParaguay07-07 · VancouverProjected
SwitzerlandPortugalQF
07-09 · BostonProjected
FranceNetherlands07-10 · InglewoodProjected
SpainBelgium07-11 · Miami GardensProjected
BrazilEngland07-11 · Kansas CityProjected
ArgentinaPortugalSF
07-14 · ArlingtonProjected
FranceSpain07-15 · AtlantaProjected
EnglandArgentina3rd Place
07-18 · Miami GardensProjected
FranceEnglandFinal
07-19 · East RutherfordProjected
SpainArgentinaEnsemble: 60% Poisson+Elo / 40% Poisson GLM. Probabilistic model for analysis, not betting advice.