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Snapshot 3 · After Round 2

Group Stage Forecast

Matchdays 1–2 results are real. Matchday 3 and the full knockout bracket are predicted, across 20,000 simulations.

What the model thought here

New real results since the previous snapshot: Matchday 2. The model called 18 of 24 results correctly. Biggest surprise: Ecuador 0–0 Curaçao (13.6%).

Title odds roseArgentinaArgentina18.3% → 21.5%NorwayNorway3.9% → 4.8%United StatesUnited States1.2% → 1.9%
Title odds fellEcuadorEcuador2.2% → 0.6%EnglandEngland7.7% → 6.6%AustriaAustria1.9% → 1.0%

Favourite now: Argentina (21.5%). Spain, who went on to win, sits at 12.0% (#2).

Marked “what actually happened” below is hindsight and was not known to the model at this snapshot.

Match explorer

Pick a stage and a view. Matches already played at this snapshot show the odds the model had before kickoff; matches still to come show this snapshot’s forecast, with the real outcome added afterwards.

Group stage
Knockouts
06-24 · Group APredicted
Mexico
Mexico
Elo 1896
vs
Czech Republic
Elo 1696
Czech Republic
65%
22%
13%
Mexico 65%Draw 22%Czech Republic 13%
What actually happened3–0✓ Called

The model gave this result 65%. Exact score: 8.3% (#5 most likely).

06-24 · Group APredicted
South Africa
South Africa
Elo 1527
vs
South Korea
Elo 1772
South Korea
17%
26%
57%
South Africa 17%Draw 26%South Korea 57%
What actually happened1–0✗ Missed

The model gave this result 17%. Exact score: 6.5%.

06-24 · Group BPredicted
Canada
Canada
Elo 1778
vs
Switzerland
Elo 1885
Switzerland
32%
30%
38%
Canada 32%Draw 30%Switzerland 38%
What actually happened1–2✓ Called

The model gave this result 38%. Exact score: 7.9% (#5 most likely).

06-24 · Group BPredicted
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Elo 1595
vs
Qatar
Elo 1437
Qatar
57%
25%
18%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 57%Draw 25%Qatar 18%
What actually happened3–1✓ Called

The model gave this result 57%. Exact score: 5.2%.

06-24 · Group CPredicted
Scotland
Scotland
Elo 1768
vs
Brazil
Elo 1985
Brazil
18%
23%
59%
Scotland 18%Draw 23%Brazil 59%
What actually happened0–3✓ Called

The model gave this result 59%. Exact score: 6.4%.

06-24 · Group CPredicted
Morocco
Morocco
Elo 1866
vs
Haiti
Elo 1528
Haiti
73%
19%
Morocco 73%Draw 19%Haiti 8%
What actually happened4–2✓ Called

The model gave this result 73%. Exact score: 0.8%.

06-25 · Group DPredicted
United States
United States
Elo 1819
vs
Turkey
Elo 1814
Turkey
38%
26%
36%
United States 38%Draw 26%Turkey 36%
What actually happened2–3✗ Missed

The model gave this result 36%. Exact score: 2.7%.

06-25 · Group DPredicted
Paraguay
Paraguay
Elo 1816
vs
Australia
Elo 1799
Australia
37%
31%
32%
Paraguay 37%Draw 31%Australia 32%
What actually happened0–0✗ Missed

The model gave this result 31%. Exact score: 12.8% (#2 most likely).

06-25 · Group EPredicted
Curaçao
Curaçao
Elo 1453
vs
Ivory Coast
Elo 1728
Ivory Coast
20%
70%
Curaçao 10%Draw 20%Ivory Coast 70%
What actually happened0–2✓ Called

The model gave this result 70%. Exact score: 15.0% (#1 most likely).

06-25 · Group EPredicted
Ecuador
Ecuador
Elo 1864
vs
Germany
Elo 1954
Germany
29%
31%
39%
Ecuador 29%Draw 31%Germany 39%
What actually happened2–1✗ Missed

The model gave this result 29%. Exact score: 6.1%.

06-25 · Group FPredicted
Japan
Japan
Elo 1925
vs
Sweden
Elo 1727
Sweden
60%
24%
16%
Japan 60%Draw 24%Sweden 16%
What actually happened1–1✗ Missed

The model gave this result 24%. Exact score: 11.3% (#3 most likely).

06-25 · Group FPredicted
Tunisia
Tunisia
Elo 1570
vs
Netherlands
Elo 1973
Netherlands
18%
75%
Tunisia 8%Draw 18%Netherlands 75%
What actually happened1–3✓ Called

The model gave this result 75%. Exact score: 6.6%.

06-26 · Group GPredicted
Egypt
Egypt
Elo 1740
vs
Iran
Elo 1766
Iran
30%
32%
38%
Egypt 30%Draw 32%Iran 38%
What actually happened1–1✗ Missed

The model gave this result 32%. Exact score: 13.8% (#1 most likely).

06-26 · Group GPredicted
New Zealand
New Zealand
Elo 1550
vs
Belgium
Elo 1868
Belgium
18%
74%
New Zealand 8%Draw 18%Belgium 74%
What actually happened1–5✓ Called

The model gave this result 74%. Exact score: 1.6%.

06-26 · Group HPredicted
Cape Verde
Cape Verde
Elo 1625
vs
Saudi Arabia
Elo 1593
Saudi Arabia
34%
30%
36%
Cape Verde 34%Draw 30%Saudi Arabia 36%
What actually happened0–0✗ Missed

The model gave this result 30%. Exact score: 11.2% (#3 most likely).

06-26 · Group HPredicted
Uruguay
Uruguay
Elo 1851
vs
Spain
Elo 2134
Spain
15%
26%
60%
Uruguay 15%Draw 26%Spain 60%
What actually happened0–1✓ Called

The model gave this result 60%. Exact score: 15.4% (#1 most likely).

06-26 · Group IPredicted
Norway
Norway
Elo 1952
vs
France
Elo 2090
France
29%
27%
44%
Norway 29%Draw 27%France 44%
What actually happened1–4✓ Called

The model gave this result 44%. Exact score: 1.5%.

06-26 · Group IPredicted
Senegal
Senegal
Elo 1816
vs
Iraq
Elo 1586
Iraq
60%
26%
15%
Senegal 60%Draw 26%Iraq 15%
What actually happened5–0✓ Called

The model gave this result 60%. Exact score: 0.9%.

06-27 · Group JPredicted
Algeria
Algeria
Elo 1780
vs
Austria
Elo 1841
Austria
31%
31%
37%
Algeria 31%Draw 31%Austria 37%
What actually happened3–3✗ Missed

The model gave this result 31%. Exact score: 0.5%.

06-27 · Group JPredicted
Jordan
Jordan
Elo 1632
vs
Argentina
Elo 2143
Argentina
85%
Jordan 3%Draw 11%Argentina 85%
What actually happened1–3✓ Called

The model gave this result 85%. Exact score: 6.2%.

06-27 · Group KPredicted
Colombia
Colombia
Elo 2006
vs
Portugal
Elo 1988
Portugal
35%
28%
37%
Colombia 35%Draw 28%Portugal 37%
What actually happened0–0✗ Missed

The model gave this result 28%. Exact score: 9.1% (#4 most likely).

06-27 · Group KPredicted
DR Congo
DR Congo
Elo 1666
vs
Uzbekistan
Elo 1677
Uzbekistan
34%
35%
31%
DR Congo 34%Draw 35%Uzbekistan 31%
What actually happened3–1✗ Missed

The model gave this result 34%. Exact score: 2.1%.

06-27 · Group LPredicted
Panama
Panama
Elo 1669
vs
England
Elo 2028
England
17%
76%
Panama 7%Draw 17%England 76%
What actually happened0–2✓ Called

The model gave this result 76%. Exact score: 15.3% (#1 most likely).

06-27 · Group LPredicted
Croatia
Croatia
Elo 1896
vs
Ghana
Elo 1584
Ghana
65%
22%
12%
Croatia 65%Draw 22%Ghana 12%
What actually happened2–1✓ Called

The model gave this result 65%. Exact score: 9.3% (#4 most likely).

Projected final standings

Expected points and qualification odds across 20,000 simulations.

Top 2 — advance directlyBest 8 third-placed — wildcard

Group A

Projected
#TeamPtsQual
1
MexicoMexico
8.2100%
2
South KoreaSouth Korea
5.094.5%
3
South AfricaSouth Africa
1.817.8%
4
Czech RepublicCzech Republic
1.614.6%

Group B

Projected
#TeamPtsQual
1
SwitzerlandSwitzerland
5.4100%
2
CanadaCanada
5.3100%
3
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina
3.058.1%
4
QatarQatar
1.817%

Group C

Projected
#TeamPtsQual
1
MoroccoMorocco
6.4100%
2
BrazilBrazil
6.0100%
3
ScotlandScotland
3.884.8%
4
HaitiHaiti
0.40.9%

Group D

Projected
#TeamPtsQual
1
United StatesUnited States
7.4100%
2
AustraliaAustralia
4.387.8%
3
ParaguayParaguay
4.480.4%
4
TurkeyTurkey
1.416.3%

Group E

Projected
#TeamPtsQual
1
GermanyGermany
7.5100%
2
Ivory CoastIvory Coast
5.395.8%
3
EcuadorEcuador
2.229.9%
4
CuraçaoCuraçao
1.510.1%

Group F

Projected
#TeamPtsQual
1
NetherlandsNetherlands
6.4100%
2
JapanJapan
6.1100%
3
SwedenSweden
3.790.9%
4
TunisiaTunisia
0.40%

Group G

Projected
#TeamPtsQual
1
EgyptEgypt
5.2100%
2
BelgiumBelgium
4.491.3%
3
IranIran
3.572.1%
4
New ZealandNew Zealand
1.48.6%

Group H

Projected
#TeamPtsQual
1
SpainSpain
6.1100%
2
Cape VerdeCape Verde
3.364.9%
3
UruguayUruguay
2.744%
4
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia
2.436%

Group I

Projected
#TeamPtsQual
1
FranceFrance
7.6100%
2
NorwayNorway
7.2100%
3
SenegalSenegal
2.052.8%
4
IraqIraq
0.76.5%

Group J

Projected
#TeamPtsQual
1
ArgentinaArgentina
8.7100%
2
AustriaAustria
4.495.2%
3
AlgeriaAlgeria
4.383.6%
4
JordanJordan
0.21.3%

Group K

Projected
#TeamPtsQual
1
ColombiaColombia
7.3100%
2
PortugalPortugal
5.4100%
3
DR CongoDR Congo
2.438.3%
4
UzbekistanUzbekistan
1.38.8%

Group L

Projected
#TeamPtsQual
1
EnglandEngland
6.4100%
2
GhanaGhana
4.6100%
3
CroatiaCroatia
5.296.9%
4
PanamaPanama
0.40.7%

Champion odds

Each team's probability of advancing through every knockout round, across 20,000 simulations.

#TeamQFSF🏆Δ 🏆 vs prev.
1
ArgentinaArgentina
66.9%47.7%21.5%+3.2
2
SpainSpain★
44.8%33.3%12.0%+0.3
3
FranceFrance
45.8%28.3%8.8%0.0
4
EnglandEngland
40.2%23.6%6.6%-1.1
5
PortugalPortugal
38.1%20.7%5.2%+0.6
6
ColombiaColombia
40.4%19.8%5.0%-0.1
7
NorwayNorway
37.2%20.5%4.8%+0.9
8
GermanyGermany
32.5%18.1%4.2%+0.2
9
BrazilBrazil
30.0%16.7%4.1%-0.3
10
NetherlandsNetherlands
32.2%17.1%3.9%0.0
11
JapanJapan
29.3%15.3%3.4%-0.2
12
MexicoMexico
34.7%15.6%2.7%+0.2
13
SwitzerlandSwitzerland
30.8%13.1%2.4%+0.5
14
MoroccoMorocco
25.8%11.8%2.3%+0.2
15
BelgiumBelgium
21.9%10.0%2.1%-0.6
16
United StatesUnited States
39.6%14.3%1.9%+0.7
17
CroatiaCroatia
18.3%8.1%1.3%+0.1
18
AustriaAustria
16.5%7.5%1.0%-0.9
19
CanadaCanada
24.8%7.8%0.9%+0.1
20
AlgeriaAlgeria
15.7%5.8%0.8%+0.2
21
ParaguayParaguay
11.1%4.9%0.6%+0.4
22
EcuadorEcuador
7.2%3.2%0.6%-1.6
23
AustraliaAustralia
10.4%4.2%0.5%-0.6
24
UruguayUruguay
9.3%3.8%0.5%-0.5
25
South KoreaSouth Korea
12.8%3.8%0.4%0.0
26
IranIran
11.4%3.6%0.4%-0.1
27
EgyptEgypt
15.7%4.6%0.4%+0.2
28
SenegalSenegal
9.6%3.4%0.4%-0.2
29
ScotlandScotland
10.1%3.3%0.3%-0.2
30
Ivory CoastIvory Coast
10.0%3.5%0.3%-0.3
31
SwedenSweden
6.4%2.0%0.2%-0.1
32
TurkeyTurkey
2.4%1.0%0.1%-0.7
33
South AfricaSouth Africa
0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0
34
Czech RepublicCzech Republic
1.9%0.4%0.0%-0.1
35
QatarQatar
0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0
36
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina
4.6%0.8%0.0%-0.1
37
HaitiHaiti
0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0
38
CuraçaoCuraçao
0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0
39
TunisiaTunisia
0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0
40
New ZealandNew Zealand
0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0
41
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia
1.1%0.3%0.0%0.0
42
Cape VerdeCape Verde
1.8%0.3%0.0%0.0
43
IraqIraq
0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0
44
JordanJordan
0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0
45
DR CongoDR Congo
3.0%0.9%0.0%-0.1
46
UzbekistanUzbekistan
0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0
47
PanamaPanama
0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0
48
GhanaGhana
3.6%0.5%0.0%0.0

The bracket

Actual results where they exist; the single most likely outcome — not just a probability — for everything still to be played.

RO32

06-28 · InglewoodProjected
South KoreaSouth Korea
CanadaCanada
Advance
46%
54%
South Korea 46%Canada 54%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was South Africa vs Canada.
06-29 · FoxboroughProjected
GermanyGermany
ParaguayParaguay
Advance
63%
37%
Germany 63%Paraguay 37%
What actually happened: 1–1 (3–4 pens) · ✗ Favourite out
06-29 · GuadalupeProjected
NetherlandsNetherlands
BrazilBrazil
Advance
49%
51%
Netherlands 49%Brazil 51%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Netherlands vs Morocco.
06-29 · HoustonProjected
MoroccoMorocco
JapanJapan
Advance
46%
54%
Morocco 46%Japan 54%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Brazil vs Japan.
06-30 · East RutherfordProjected
FranceFrance
SwedenSweden
Advance
80%
20%
France 80%Sweden 20%
What actually happened: 3–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced
06-30 · ArlingtonProjected
Ivory CoastIvory Coast
NorwayNorway
Advance
31%
69%
Ivory Coast 31%Norway 69%
What actually happened: 1–2 · ✓ Favourite advanced
06-30 · Mexico CityProjected
MexicoMexico
ScotlandScotland
Advance
69%
31%
Mexico 69%Scotland 31%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Mexico vs Ecuador.
07-01 · Santa ClaraProjected
United StatesUnited States
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina
Advance
74%
26%
United States 74%Bosnia and Herzegovina 26%
What actually happened: 2–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-01 · SeattleProjected
EgyptEgypt
UruguayUruguay
Advance
41%
59%
Egypt 41%Uruguay 59%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Belgium vs Senegal.
07-01 · AtlantaProjected
EnglandEngland
AlgeriaAlgeria
Advance
67%
33%
England 67%Algeria 33%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was England vs DR Congo.
07-02 · TorontoProjected
PortugalPortugal
GhanaGhana
Advance
85%
15%
Portugal 85%Ghana 15%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Portugal vs Croatia.
07-02 · InglewoodProjected
SpainSpain
AustriaAustria
Advance
71%
29%
Spain 71%Austria 29%
What actually happened: 3–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-02 · VancouverProjected
SwitzerlandSwitzerland
IranIran
Advance
63%
37%
Switzerland 63%Iran 37%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Switzerland vs Algeria.
07-03 · Miami GardensProjected
ArgentinaArgentina
Cape VerdeCape Verde
Advance
92%
Argentina 92%Cape Verde 8%
What actually happened: 3–2 (after extra time) · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-03 · ArlingtonProjected
AustraliaAustralia
BelgiumBelgium
Advance
40%
60%
Australia 40%Belgium 60%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Australia vs Egypt.
07-03 · Kansas CityProjected
ColombiaColombia
CroatiaCroatia
Advance
61%
39%
Colombia 61%Croatia 39%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Colombia vs Ghana.

RO16

07-04 · PhiladelphiaProjected
GermanyGermany
FranceFrance
Advance
43%
57%
Germany 43%France 57%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Paraguay vs France.
07-04 · HoustonProjected
CanadaCanada
BrazilBrazil
Advance
33%
67%
Canada 33%Brazil 67%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Canada vs Morocco.
07-05 · East RutherfordProjected
JapanJapan
NorwayNorway
Advance
50%
50%
Japan 50%Norway 50%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Brazil vs Norway.
07-05 · Mexico CityProjected
MexicoMexico
EnglandEngland
Advance
45%
55%
Mexico 45%England 55%
What actually happened: 2–3 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-06 · ArlingtonProjected
PortugalPortugal
SpainSpain
Advance
39%
61%
Portugal 39%Spain 61%
What actually happened: 0–1 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-06 · SeattleProjected
United StatesUnited States
UruguayUruguay
Advance
52%
48%
United States 52%Uruguay 48%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was United States vs Belgium.
07-07 · AtlantaProjected
ArgentinaArgentina
BelgiumBelgium
Advance
73%
27%
Argentina 73%Belgium 27%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Argentina vs Egypt.
07-07 · VancouverProjected
SwitzerlandSwitzerland
ColombiaColombia
Advance
44%
56%
Switzerland 44%Colombia 56%
What actually happened: 0–0 (4–3 pens) · ✗ Favourite out

QF

07-09 · BostonProjected
FranceFrance
BrazilBrazil
Advance
56%
44%
France 56%Brazil 44%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was France vs Morocco.
07-10 · InglewoodProjected
SpainSpain
United StatesUnited States
Advance
74%
26%
Spain 74%United States 26%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Spain vs Belgium.
07-11 · Miami GardensProjected
NorwayNorway
EnglandEngland
Advance
44%
56%
Norway 44%England 56%
What actually happened: 1–2 (after extra time) · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-11 · Kansas CityProjected
ArgentinaArgentina
ColombiaColombia
Advance
66%
34%
Argentina 66%Colombia 34%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Argentina vs Switzerland.

SF

07-14 · ArlingtonProjected
FranceFrance
SpainSpain
Advance
45%
55%
France 45%Spain 55%
What actually happened: 0–2 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-15 · AtlantaProjected
EnglandEngland
ArgentinaArgentina
Advance
39%
61%
England 39%Argentina 61%
What actually happened: 1–2 · ✓ Favourite advanced

3rd Place

07-18 · Miami GardensProjected
FranceFrance
EnglandEngland
Advance
52%
48%
France 52%England 48%
What actually happened: 4–6 · ✗ Favourite out

Final

07-19 · East RutherfordProjected
SpainSpain
ArgentinaArgentina
Advance
45%
55%
Spain 45%Argentina 55%
What actually happened: 1–0 (after extra time) · ✗ Favourite out

Ensemble: 60% Poisson+Elo / 40% Poisson GLM. Probabilistic model for analysis, not betting advice.