Stage 3 · After Matchday 2

Group Stage Forecast

Matchdays 1–2 results are real. Matchday 3 and the full knockout bracket are predicted, across 20,000 simulations.

Match predictions

Mexico

Elo 1896

06-11

2 – 0

South Africa

Elo 1527

Pre-match prediction

78%

16%

Win 78%Draw 16%Win 6%

Likely2-0

xG2.35–0.51

O 2.554%

BTTS36%

South Korea

Elo 1772

06-11

2 – 1

Czech Republic

Elo 1696

Pre-match prediction

41%

28%

31%

Win 41%Draw 28%Win 31%

Likely1-1

xG1.35–1.13

O 2.545%

BTTS51%

Canada

Elo 1778

06-12

1 – 1

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Elo 1595

Pre-match prediction

62%

25%

13%

Win 62%Draw 25%Win 13%

Likely1-0

xG1.72–0.67

O 2.543%

BTTS40%

Qatar

Elo 1437

06-13

1 – 1

Switzerland

Elo 1885

Pre-match prediction

86%

Win 4%Draw 10%Win 86%

Likely0-2

xG0.5–3.07

O 2.568%

BTTS38%

Brazil

Elo 1985

06-13

1 – 1

Morocco

Elo 1866

Pre-match prediction

40%

30%

Win 40%Draw 30%Win 30%

Likely1-1

xG1.23–1

O 2.538%

BTTS44%

Haiti

Elo 1528

06-13

0 – 1

Scotland

Elo 1768

Pre-match prediction

14%

22%

64%

Win 14%Draw 22%Win 64%

Likely0-2

xG0.82–1.98

O 2.553%

BTTS49%

United States

Elo 1819

06-12

4 – 1

Paraguay

Elo 1816

Pre-match prediction

39%

28%

34%

Win 39%Draw 28%Win 34%

Likely1-1

xG1.32–1.23

O 2.547%

BTTS51%

Australia

Elo 1799

06-13

2 – 0

Turkey

Elo 1814

Pre-match prediction

32%

29%

39%

Win 32%Draw 29%Win 39%

Likely1-1

xG1.11–1.24

O 2.542%

BTTS48%

Germany

Elo 1954

06-14

7 – 1

Curaçao

Elo 1453

Pre-match prediction

89%

Win 89%Draw 8%Win 3%

Likely3-0

xG3.41–0.49

O 2.573%

BTTS37%

Ivory Coast

Elo 1728

06-14

1 – 0

Ecuador

Elo 1864

Pre-match prediction

21%

34%

45%

Win 21%Draw 34%Win 45%

Likely0-0

xG0.72–1.18

O 2.530%

BTTS36%

Netherlands

Elo 1973

06-14

2 – 2

Japan

Elo 1925

Pre-match prediction

35%

31%

34%

Win 35%Draw 31%Win 34%

Likely1-1

xG1.1–1.08

O 2.537%

BTTS44%

Sweden

Elo 1727

06-14

5 – 1

Tunisia

Elo 1570

Pre-match prediction

51%

26%

23%

Win 51%Draw 26%Win 23%

Likely1-1

xG1.61–1

O 2.548%

BTTS51%

Belgium

Elo 1868

06-15

1 – 1

Egypt

Elo 1740

Pre-match prediction

51%

28%

21%

Win 51%Draw 28%Win 21%

Likely1-0

xG1.44–0.82

O 2.539%

BTTS43%

Iran

Elo 1766

06-15

2 – 2

New Zealand

Elo 1550

Pre-match prediction

61%

25%

15%

Win 61%Draw 25%Win 15%

Likely1-0

xG1.7–0.71

O 2.543%

BTTS42%

Spain

Elo 2134

06-15

0 – 0

Cape Verde

Elo 1625

Pre-match prediction

87%

Win 87%Draw 10%Win 3%

Likely3-0

xG3.01–0.48

O 2.568%

BTTS37%

Saudi Arabia

Elo 1593

06-15

1 – 1

Uruguay

Elo 1851

Pre-match prediction

14%

27%

59%

Win 14%Draw 27%Win 59%

Likely0-1

xG0.63–1.57

O 2.538%

BTTS37%

France

Elo 2090

06-16

3 – 1

Senegal

Elo 1816

Pre-match prediction

58%

24%

18%

Win 58%Draw 24%Win 18%

Likely1-0

xG1.77–0.87

O 2.549%

BTTS48%

Iraq

Elo 1586

06-16

1 – 4

Norway

Elo 1952

Pre-match prediction

19%

73%

Win 8%Draw 19%Win 73%

Likely0-2

xG0.56–2.12

O 2.550%

BTTS38%

Argentina

Elo 2143

06-16

3 – 0

Algeria

Elo 1780

Pre-match prediction

64%

25%

Win 64%Draw 25%Win 11%

Likely1-0

xG1.76–0.56

O 2.541%

BTTS35%

Austria

Elo 1841

06-16

3 – 1

Jordan

Elo 1632

Pre-match prediction

62%

23%

15%

Win 62%Draw 23%Win 15%

Likely1-0

xG1.84–0.77

O 2.548%

BTTS46%

Portugal

Elo 1988

06-17

1 – 1

DR Congo

Elo 1666

Pre-match prediction

62%

25%

12%

Win 62%Draw 25%Win 12%

Likely1-0

xG1.71–0.61

O 2.540%

BTTS37%

Uzbekistan

Elo 1677

06-17

1 – 3

Colombia

Elo 2006

Pre-match prediction

22%

67%

Win 11%Draw 22%Win 67%

Likely0-1

xG0.65–1.93

O 2.547%

BTTS41%

England

Elo 2028

06-17

4 – 2

Croatia

Elo 1896

Pre-match prediction

50%

29%

21%

Win 50%Draw 29%Win 21%

Likely1-0

xG1.4–0.83

O 2.539%

BTTS43%

Ghana

Elo 1584

06-17

1 – 0

Panama

Elo 1669

Pre-match prediction

32%

29%

39%

Win 32%Draw 29%Win 39%

Likely1-1

xG1.14–1.27

O 2.543%

BTTS49%

Projected final standings

Expected points and qualification odds across 20,000 simulations.

Top 2 — advance directlyBest 8 third-placed — wildcard

Group A

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Mexico	8.2	+4.2	100%
2	South Korea	5.0	+0.8	94.5%
3	South Africa	1.8	-2.9	17.8%
4	Czech Republic	1.6	-2.2	14.6%

Group B

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Switzerland	5.4	+3.1	100%
2	Canada	5.3	+5.9	100%
3	Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.0	-2.1	58.1%
4	Qatar	1.8	-6.9	17%

Group C

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Morocco	6.4	+2.5	100%
2	Brazil	6.0	+4.0	100%
3	Scotland	3.8	-0.9	84.8%
4	Haiti	0.4	-5.5	0.9%

Group D

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	United States	7.4	+5.0	100%
2	Australia	4.3	-0.1	87.8%
3	Paraguay	4.4	-1.9	80.4%
4	Turkey	1.4	-3.0	16.3%

Group E

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Germany	7.5	+7.2	100%
2	Ivory Coast	5.3	+1.4	95.8%
3	Ecuador	2.2	-1.2	29.9%
4	Curaçao	1.5	-7.4	10.1%

Group F

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Netherlands	6.4	+5.7	100%
2	Japan	6.1	+5.0	100%
3	Sweden	3.7	-1.0	90.9%
4	Tunisia	0.4	-9.7	0%

Group G

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Egypt	5.2	+1.9	100%
2	Belgium	4.4	+1.6	91.3%
3	Iran	3.5	+0.1	72.1%
4	New Zealand	1.4	-3.6	8.6%

Group H

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Spain	6.1	+5.0	100%
2	Cape Verde	3.3	-0.1	64.9%
3	Uruguay	2.7	-1.0	44%
4	Saudi Arabia	2.4	-4.0	36%

Group I

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	France	7.6	+5.3	100%
2	Norway	7.2	+3.7	100%
3	Senegal	2.0	-2.1	52.8%
4	Iraq	0.7	-6.9	6.5%

Group J

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Argentina	8.7	+7.3	100%
2	Austria	4.4	+0.1	95.2%
3	Algeria	4.3	-2.1	83.6%
4	Jordan	0.2	-5.3	1.3%

Group K

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Colombia	7.3	+3.0	100%
2	Portugal	5.4	+5.0	100%
3	DR Congo	2.4	-0.9	38.3%
4	Uzbekistan	1.3	-7.1	8.8%

Group L

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	England	6.4	+3.7	100%
2	Ghana	4.6	-0.2	100%
3	Croatia	5.2	+0.2	96.9%
4	Panama	0.4	-3.7	0.7%

Champion odds

Each team's probability of advancing through every knockout round, across 20,000 simulations.

#	Team	RO32	RO16	QF	SF	Final	🏆
1	Argentina	100.0%	87.0%	66.9%	47.7%	32.1%	21.5%
2	Spain	100.0%	68.9%	44.8%	33.3%	21.2%	12.0%
3	France	100.0%	75.5%	45.8%	28.3%	16.0%	8.8%
4	England	100.0%	69.1%	40.2%	23.6%	12.2%	6.6%
5	Portugal	100.0%	69.9%	38.1%	20.7%	11.1%	5.2%
6	Colombia	100.0%	70.9%	40.4%	19.8%	10.2%	5.0%
7	Norway	100.0%	70.0%	37.2%	20.5%	9.8%	4.8%
8	Germany	100.0%	64.3%	32.5%	18.1%	9.5%	4.2%
9	Brazil	100.0%	53.0%	30.0%	16.7%	8.1%	4.1%
10	Netherlands	100.0%	53.6%	32.2%	17.1%	8.1%	3.9%
11	Japan	100.0%	52.0%	29.3%	15.3%	7.5%	3.4%
12	Mexico	100.0%	64.4%	34.7%	15.6%	6.4%	2.7%
13	Switzerland	100.0%	64.9%	30.8%	13.1%	5.8%	2.4%
14	Morocco	100.0%	47.2%	25.8%	11.8%	5.3%	2.3%
15	Belgium	91.3%	53.2%	21.9%	10.0%	4.8%	2.1%
16	United States	100.0%	71.3%	39.6%	14.3%	5.8%	1.9%
17	Croatia	96.9%	42.1%	18.3%	8.1%	3.4%	1.3%
18	Austria	95.2%	36.3%	16.5%	7.5%	3.1%	1.0%
19	Canada	100.0%	57.8%	24.8%	7.8%	2.9%	0.9%
20	Algeria	83.6%	34.4%	15.7%	5.8%	2.2%	0.8%
21	Paraguay	80.4%	34.6%	11.1%	4.9%	1.9%	0.6%
22	Ecuador	29.9%	14.0%	7.2%	3.2%	1.3%	0.6%
23	Australia	87.8%	38.4%	10.4%	4.2%	1.5%	0.5%
24	Uruguay	44.0%	19.8%	9.3%	3.8%	1.5%	0.5%
25	South Korea	94.5%	38.0%	12.8%	3.8%	1.3%	0.4%
26	Iran	72.1%	31.8%	11.4%	3.6%	1.3%	0.4%
27	Egypt	100.0%	42.6%	15.7%	4.6%	1.4%	0.4%
28	Senegal	52.8%	21.5%	9.6%	3.4%	1.1%	0.4%
29	Scotland	84.8%	27.6%	10.1%	3.3%	0.9%	0.3%
30	Ivory Coast	95.8%	28.7%	10.0%	3.5%	0.9%	0.3%
31	Sweden	90.9%	20.6%	6.4%	2.0%	0.6%	0.2%
32	Turkey	16.3%	5.8%	2.4%	1.0%	0.5%	0.1%
33	South Africa	17.8%	4.2%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
34	Czech Republic	14.6%	5.6%	1.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
35	Qatar	17.0%	1.6%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
36	Bosnia and Herzegovina	58.1%	15.0%	4.6%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
37	Haiti	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
38	Curaçao	10.1%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
39	Tunisia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
40	New Zealand	8.6%	2.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
41	Saudi Arabia	36.0%	3.8%	1.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
42	Cape Verde	64.9%	7.2%	1.8%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
43	Iraq	6.5%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
44	Jordan	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
45	DR Congo	38.3%	10.0%	3.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
46	Uzbekistan	8.8%	2.1%	0.6%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
47	Panama	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
48	Ghana	100.0%	16.5%	3.6%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%

The bracket

Actual results where they exist; the single most likely outcome — not just a probability — for everything still to be played.

RO32

06-28 · InglewoodProjected

South Korea

Canada

06-29 · FoxboroughProjected

Germany

Paraguay

06-29 · GuadalupeProjected

Netherlands

Brazil

06-29 · HoustonProjected

Morocco

Japan

06-30 · East RutherfordProjected

France

Sweden

06-30 · ArlingtonProjected

Ivory Coast

Norway

06-30 · Mexico CityProjected

Mexico

Scotland

07-01 · Santa ClaraProjected

United States

Bosnia and Herzegovina

07-01 · SeattleProjected

Egypt

Uruguay

07-01 · AtlantaProjected

England

Algeria

07-02 · TorontoProjected

Portugal

Ghana

07-02 · InglewoodProjected

Spain

Austria

07-02 · VancouverProjected

Switzerland

Iran

07-03 · Miami GardensProjected

Argentina

Cape Verde

07-03 · ArlingtonProjected

Australia

Belgium

07-03 · Kansas CityProjected

Colombia

Croatia

RO16

07-04 · PhiladelphiaProjected

Germany

France

07-04 · HoustonProjected

Canada

Brazil

07-05 · East RutherfordProjected

Japan

Norway

07-05 · Mexico CityProjected

Mexico

England

07-06 · ArlingtonProjected

Portugal

Spain

07-06 · SeattleProjected

United States

Uruguay

07-07 · AtlantaProjected

Argentina

Belgium

07-07 · VancouverProjected

Switzerland

Colombia

QF

07-09 · BostonProjected

France

Brazil

07-10 · InglewoodProjected

Spain

United States

07-11 · Miami GardensProjected

Norway

England

07-11 · Kansas CityProjected

Argentina

Colombia

SF

07-14 · ArlingtonProjected

France

Spain

07-15 · AtlantaProjected

England

Argentina

3rd Place

07-18 · Miami GardensProjected

France

England

Final

07-19 · East RutherfordProjected

Spain

Argentina

Ensemble: 60% Poisson+Elo / 40% Poisson GLM. Probabilistic model for analysis, not betting advice.