←Project overview
South Korea
Switzerland
Germany
Scotland
Sweden
Morocco
Brazil
Netherlands
France
Japan
Ivory Coast
Norway
Mexico
Ecuador
United States
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Belgium
Algeria
England
Senegal
Portugal
Croatia
Spain
Austria
Canada
Iran
Argentina
Uruguay
Australia
Egypt
Colombia
GhanaGermanyFranceSwitzerlandMoroccoBrazilNorwayMexicoEnglandPortugalSpainUnited StatesBelgiumArgentinaAustraliaCanadaColombiaFranceMoroccoSpainBelgiumBrazilEnglandArgentinaColombiaFranceSpainEnglandArgentinaFranceEnglandSpainArgentina
Snapshot 2 · After Round 1
Group Stage Forecast
Matchday 1 results are real. Matchdays 2–3 and the full knockout bracket are predicted, across 20,000 simulations.
What the model thought here
New real results since the previous snapshot: Matchday 1. The model called 11 of 24 results correctly. Biggest surprise: Spain 0–0 Cape Verde (8.1%).
Title odds roseArgentina15.8% → 18.3%France7.1% → 8.8%England6.6% → 7.7%
Argentina15.8% → 18.3%France7.1% → 8.8%England6.6% → 7.7%Title odds fellSpain13.7% → 11.7%Ecuador3.7% → 2.2%
Turkey2.0% → 0.8%
Spain13.7% → 11.7%Ecuador3.7% → 2.2%Turkey2.0% → 0.8%Favourite now: Argentina (18.3%). Spain, who went on to win, sits at 11.7% (#2).
Marked “what actually happened” below is hindsight and was not known to the model at this snapshot.
Match explorer
Pick a stage and a view. Matches already played at this snapshot show the odds the model had before kickoff; matches still to come show this snapshot’s forecast, with the real outcome added afterwards.
Group stage
Knockouts
06-18 · Group APredicted
Czech Republic
Elo 1712
vs
South Africa
Elo 1511
54%
26%
20%
Czech Republic 54%Draw 26%South Africa 20%
What actually happened1–1✗ Missed
The model gave this result 26%. Exact score: 12.4% (#2 most likely).
06-18 · Group APredicted
Mexico
Elo 1881
vs
South Korea
Elo 1786
57%
26%
18%
Mexico 57%Draw 26%South Korea 18%
What actually happened1–0✓ Called
The model gave this result 57%. Exact score: 13.7% (#1 most likely).
06-18 · Group BPredicted
Switzerland
Elo 1865
vs
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Elo 1616
65%
22%
13%
Switzerland 65%Draw 22%Bosnia and Herzegovina 13%
What actually happened4–1✓ Called
The model gave this result 65%. Exact score: 2.9%.
06-18 · Group BPredicted
Canada
Elo 1767
vs
Qatar
Elo 1447
81%
14%
Canada 81%Draw 14%Qatar 5%
What actually happened6–0✓ Called
The model gave this result 81%. Exact score outside the model’s printed grid (more than 5 goals by a side).
06-19 · Group CPredicted
Scotland
Elo 1794
vs
Morocco
Elo 1840
25%
30%
44%
Scotland 25%Draw 30%Morocco 44%
What actually happened0–1✓ Called
The model gave this result 44%. Exact score: 14.6% (#1 most likely).
06-19 · Group CPredicted
Brazil
Elo 1978
vs
Haiti
Elo 1536
83%
12%
Brazil 83%Draw 12%Haiti 5%
What actually happened3–0✓ Called
The model gave this result 83%. Exact score: 11.4% (#2 most likely).
06-19 · Group DPredicted
United States
Elo 1780
vs
Australia
Elo 1839
37%
28%
35%
United States 37%Draw 28%Australia 35%
What actually happened2–0✓ Called
The model gave this result 37%. Exact score: 6.6%.
06-19 · Group DPredicted
Turkey
Elo 1849
vs
Paraguay
Elo 1780
40%
29%
31%
Turkey 40%Draw 29%Paraguay 31%
What actually happened0–1✗ Missed
The model gave this result 31%. Exact score: 9.7% (#4 most likely).
06-20 · Group EPredicted
Germany
Elo 1939
vs
Ivory Coast
Elo 1743
54%
27%
19%
Germany 54%Draw 27%Ivory Coast 19%
What actually happened2–1✓ Called
The model gave this result 54%. Exact score: 9.2% (#5 most likely).
06-20 · Group EPredicted
Ecuador
Elo 1890
vs
Curaçao
Elo 1427
82%
14%
Ecuador 82%Draw 14%Curaçao 4%
What actually happened0–0✗ Missed
The model gave this result 14%. Exact score: 6.2%.
06-20 · Group FPredicted
Netherlands
Elo 1944
vs
Sweden
Elo 1755
60%
23%
17%
Netherlands 60%Draw 23%Sweden 17%
What actually happened5–1✓ Called
The model gave this result 60%. Exact score: 1.5%.
06-20 · Group FPredicted
Tunisia
Elo 1585
vs
Japan
Elo 1910
22%
68%
Tunisia 9%Draw 22%Japan 68%
What actually happened0–4✓ Called
The model gave this result 68%. Exact score: 4.4%.
06-21 · Group GPredicted
Belgium
Elo 1879
vs
Iran
Elo 1756
50%
27%
23%
Belgium 50%Draw 27%Iran 23%
What actually happened0–0✗ Missed
The model gave this result 27%. Exact score: 9.0% (#5 most likely).
06-21 · Group GPredicted
New Zealand
Elo 1578
vs
Egypt
Elo 1711
20%
30%
50%
New Zealand 20%Draw 30%Egypt 50%
What actually happened1–3✓ Called
The model gave this result 50%. Exact score: 3.6%.
06-21 · Group HPredicted
Spain
Elo 2129
vs
Saudi Arabia
Elo 1598
85%
Spain 85%Draw 11%Saudi Arabia 4%
What actually happened4–0✓ Called
The model gave this result 85%. Exact score: 9.7% (#4 most likely).
06-21 · Group HPredicted
Uruguay
Elo 1870
vs
Cape Verde
Elo 1606
63%
25%
12%
Uruguay 63%Draw 25%Cape Verde 12%
What actually happened2–2✗ Missed
The model gave this result 25%. Exact score: 2.7%.
06-22 · Group IPredicted
France
Elo 2084
vs
Iraq
Elo 1592
79%
15%
France 79%Draw 15%Iraq 6%
What actually happened3–0✓ Called
The model gave this result 79%. Exact score: 12.4% (#3 most likely).
06-22 · Group IPredicted
Norway
Elo 1929
vs
Senegal
Elo 1839
47%
28%
25%
Norway 47%Draw 28%Senegal 25%
What actually happened3–2✓ Called
The model gave this result 47%. Exact score: 2.2%.
06-22 · Group JPredicted
Argentina
Elo 2128
vs
Austria
Elo 1857
59%
27%
14%
Argentina 59%Draw 27%Austria 14%
What actually happened2–0✓ Called
The model gave this result 59%. Exact score: 12.9% (#3 most likely).
06-22 · Group JPredicted
Jordan
Elo 1653
vs
Algeria
Elo 1759
19%
24%
56%
Jordan 19%Draw 24%Algeria 56%
What actually happened1–2✓ Called
The model gave this result 56%. Exact score: 9.1% (#4 most likely).
06-23 · Group KPredicted
Portugal
Elo 1967
vs
Uzbekistan
Elo 1698
64%
23%
12%
Portugal 64%Draw 23%Uzbekistan 12%
What actually happened5–0✓ Called
The model gave this result 64%. Exact score: 1.4%.
06-23 · Group KPredicted
Colombia
Elo 1998
vs
DR Congo
Elo 1674
61%
25%
14%
Colombia 61%Draw 25%DR Congo 14%
What actually happened1–0✓ Called
The model gave this result 61%. Exact score: 15.4% (#1 most likely).
06-23 · Group LPredicted
England
Elo 2055
vs
Ghana
Elo 1557
80%
15%
England 80%Draw 15%Ghana 5%
What actually happened0–0✗ Missed
The model gave this result 15%. Exact score: 6.8%.
06-23 · Group LPredicted
Panama
Elo 1683
vs
Croatia
Elo 1881
16%
23%
61%
Panama 16%Draw 23%Croatia 61%
What actually happened0–1✓ Called
The model gave this result 61%. Exact score: 12.1% (#1 most likely).
Projected final standings
Expected points and qualification odds across 20,000 simulations.
Top 2 — advance directlyBest 8 third-placed — wildcard
Group A
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 7.1 | 99.3% |
| 2 | South Korea | 5.8 | 95% |
| 3 |  Czech Republic | 2.5 | 49.3% |
| 4 |  South Africa | 1.6 | 19% |
Group B
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canada | 4.8 | 91.1% |
| 2 | Switzerland | 4.6 | 84.4% |
| 3 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3.6 | 69.1% |
| 4 |  Qatar | 2.0 | 23.8% |
Group C
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 5.5 | 95.2% |
| 2 | Morocco | 5.0 | 89.3% |
| 3 | Scotland | 4.9 | 85.6% |
| 4 |  Haiti | 0.7 | 6.7% |
Group D
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 5.6 | 96.4% |
| 2 | Australia | 5.7 | 95.1% |
| 3 | Turkey | 3.0 | 48.2% |
| 4 |  Paraguay | 2.5 | 33.4% |
Group E
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 6.3 | 99.8% |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 6.2 | 97.9% |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3.9 | 82.2% |
| 4 |  Curaçao | 0.7 | 2.6% |
Group F
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 4.5 | 93.9% |
| 2 | Netherlands | 5.4 | 93% |
| 3 | Japan | 5.3 | 91.8% |
| 4 |  Tunisia | 1.0 | 6.2% |
Group G
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 5.1 | 90.6% |
| 2 | Egypt | 4.0 | 73% |
| 3 | Iran | 3.4 | 61.4% |
| 4 |  New Zealand | 2.4 | 32.3% |
Group H
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 5.7 | 96.1% |
| 2 | Uruguay | 3.9 | 75.1% |
| 3 |  Cape Verde | 2.9 | 47.6% |
| 4 |  Saudi Arabia | 2.6 | 42.5% |
Group I
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 7.1 | 99.6% |
| 2 | Norway | 5.8 | 98.1% |
| 3 | Senegal | 3.1 | 56.8% |
| 4 |  Iraq | 1.0 | 7% |
Group J
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 7.7 | 99.9% |
| 2 | Austria | 5.2 | 94.4% |
| 3 | Algeria | 3.1 | 51.4% |
| 4 |  Jordan | 1.1 | 11.1% |
Group K
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | 6.5 | 98% |
| 2 | Portugal | 4.5 | 84.1% |
| 3 |  DR Congo | 3.0 | 50.9% |
| 4 |  Uzbekistan | 1.9 | 26% |
Group L
Projected| # | Team | Pts | Qual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 8.0 | 99.9% |
| 2 | Croatia | 4.3 | 80.9% |
| 3 | Ghana | 3.9 | 62.9% |
| 4 |  Panama | 1.1 | 12% |
Champion odds
Each team's probability of advancing through every knockout round, across 20,000 simulations.
| # | Team | QF | SF | 🏆 | Δ 🏆 vs prev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 57.8% | 41.5% | 18.3% | +2.5 |
| 2 | Spain★ | 43.2% | 31.1% | 11.7% | -2.0 |
| 3 | France | 43.3% | 27.0% | 8.8% | +1.7 |
| 4 | England | 43.2% | 25.8% | 7.7% | +1.1 |
| 5 | Colombia | 39.2% | 19.9% | 5.1% | +1.0 |
| 6 | Portugal | 30.0% | 16.6% | 4.6% | -0.6 |
| 7 | Brazil | 32.1% | 17.1% | 4.4% | -0.4 |
| 8 | Germany | 29.7% | 16.5% | 4.0% | +0.1 |
| 9 | Netherlands | 30.1% | 15.8% | 3.9% | +0.1 |
| 10 | Norway | 32.4% | 17.0% | 3.9% | +0.4 |
| 11 | Japan | 28.4% | 14.8% | 3.6% | +0.1 |
| 12 | Belgium | 30.2% | 13.5% | 2.7% | -0.4 |
| 13 | Mexico | 30.8% | 14.0% | 2.5% | -0.1 |
| 14 | Ecuador | 20.9% | 9.6% | 2.2% | -1.5 |
| 15 | Morocco | 23.4% | 11.2% | 2.1% | +0.1 |
| 16 | Switzerland | 26.2% | 11.1% | 1.9% | -1.0 |
| 17 | Austria | 21.3% | 10.6% | 1.9% | +0.8 |
| 18 | United States | 22.9% | 8.9% | 1.2% | +0.7 |
| 19 | Croatia | 15.5% | 7.7% | 1.2% | -0.5 |
| 20 | Australia | 21.3% | 8.4% | 1.1% | +0.7 |
| 21 | Uruguay | 13.7% | 6.4% | 1.0% | -0.6 |
| 22 | Canada | 21.6% | 7.3% | 0.8% | -0.3 |
| 23 | Turkey | 10.0% | 4.6% | 0.8% | -1.2 |
| 24 | Ivory Coast | 12.9% | 4.9% | 0.6% | +0.4 |
| 25 | Senegal | 11.1% | 4.4% | 0.6% | -0.5 |
| 26 | Algeria | 9.8% | 3.9% | 0.6% | -0.2 |
| 27 | Scotland | 14.1% | 5.1% | 0.5% | +0.1 |
| 28 | Iran | 10.9% | 3.6% | 0.5% | -0.1 |
| 29 | South Korea | 16.4% | 5.2% | 0.4% | +0.1 |
| 30 | Sweden | 10.3% | 3.5% | 0.3% | +0.2 |
| 31 | Paraguay | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.2% | -0.9 |
| 32 | Egypt | 9.6% | 3.0% | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| 33 | Czech Republic | 7.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| 34 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 6.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% | +0.1 |
| 35 | DR Congo | 5.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 36 | South Africa | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 37 | Qatar | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 38 | Haiti | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 39 | Curaçao | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 40 | Tunisia | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 41 | New Zealand | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 42 | Saudi Arabia | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 43 | Cape Verde | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 44 | Iraq | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 45 | Jordan | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 46 | Uzbekistan | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| 47 | Panama | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| 48 | Ghana | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The bracket
Actual results where they exist; the single most likely outcome — not just a probability — for everything still to be played.
RO32
06-28 · InglewoodProjected
South KoreaSwitzerlandAdvance
36%
64%
South Korea 36%Switzerland 64%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was South Africa vs Canada.
06-29 · FoxboroughProjected
GermanyScotlandAdvance
67%
33%
Germany 67%Scotland 33%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Germany vs Paraguay.
06-29 · GuadalupeProjected
SwedenMoroccoAdvance
35%
65%
Sweden 35%Morocco 65%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Netherlands vs Morocco.
06-29 · HoustonProjected
BrazilNetherlandsAdvance
52%
48%
Brazil 52%Netherlands 48%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Brazil vs Japan.
06-30 · East RutherfordProjected
FranceJapanAdvance
58%
42%
France 58%Japan 42%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was France vs Sweden.
06-30 · ArlingtonProjected
Ivory CoastNorwayAdvance
33%
67%
Ivory Coast 33%Norway 67%
What actually happened: 1–2 · ✓ Favourite advanced
06-30 · Mexico CityProjected
MexicoEcuadorAdvance
54%
46%
Mexico 54%Ecuador 46%
What actually happened: 2–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-01 · Santa ClaraProjected
United StatesBosnia and HerzegovinaAdvance
71%
29%
United States 71%Bosnia and Herzegovina 29%
What actually happened: 2–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-01 · SeattleProjected
BelgiumAlgeriaAdvance
58%
42%
Belgium 58%Algeria 42%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Belgium vs Senegal.
07-01 · AtlantaProjected
EnglandSenegalAdvance
68%
32%
England 68%Senegal 32%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was England vs DR Congo.
07-02 · TorontoProjected
PortugalCroatiaAdvance
61%
39%
Portugal 61%Croatia 39%
What actually happened: 2–1 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-02 · InglewoodProjected
SpainAustriaAdvance
70%
30%
Spain 70%Austria 30%
What actually happened: 3–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-02 · VancouverProjected
CanadaIranAdvance
59%
41%
Canada 59%Iran 41%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Switzerland vs Algeria.
07-03 · Miami GardensProjected
ArgentinaUruguayAdvance
73%
27%
Argentina 73%Uruguay 27%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Argentina vs Cape Verde.
07-03 · ArlingtonProjected
AustraliaEgyptAdvance
60%
40%
Australia 60%Egypt 40%
What actually happened: 1–1 (2–4 pens) · ✗ Favourite out
07-03 · Kansas CityProjected
ColombiaGhanaAdvance
85%
15%
Colombia 85%Ghana 15%
What actually happened: 1–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced
RO16
07-04 · PhiladelphiaProjected
GermanyFranceAdvance
42%
58%
Germany 42%France 58%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Paraguay vs France.
07-04 · HoustonProjected
SwitzerlandMoroccoAdvance
49%
51%
Switzerland 49%Morocco 51%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Canada vs Morocco.
07-05 · East RutherfordProjected
BrazilNorwayAdvance
52%
48%
Brazil 52%Norway 48%
What actually happened: 1–2 · ✗ Favourite out
07-05 · Mexico CityProjected
MexicoEnglandAdvance
43%
57%
Mexico 43%England 57%
What actually happened: 2–3 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-06 · ArlingtonProjected
PortugalSpainAdvance
38%
62%
Portugal 38%Spain 62%
What actually happened: 0–1 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-06 · SeattleProjected
United StatesBelgiumAdvance
41%
59%
United States 41%Belgium 59%
What actually happened: 1–4 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-07 · AtlantaProjected
ArgentinaAustraliaAdvance
76%
24%
Argentina 76%Australia 24%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Argentina vs Egypt.
07-07 · VancouverProjected
CanadaColombiaAdvance
40%
60%
Canada 40%Colombia 60%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Switzerland vs Colombia.
QF
07-09 · BostonProjected
FranceMoroccoAdvance
62%
38%
France 62%Morocco 38%
What actually happened: 2–0 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-10 · InglewoodProjected
SpainBelgiumAdvance
67%
33%
Spain 67%Belgium 33%
What actually happened: 2–1 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-11 · Miami GardensProjected
BrazilEnglandAdvance
43%
57%
Brazil 43%England 57%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Norway vs England.
07-11 · Kansas CityProjected
ArgentinaColombiaAdvance
66%
34%
Argentina 66%Colombia 34%
This projected tie did not happen — the real tie was Argentina vs Switzerland.
SF
07-14 · ArlingtonProjected
FranceSpainAdvance
44%
56%
France 44%Spain 56%
What actually happened: 0–2 · ✓ Favourite advanced
07-15 · AtlantaProjected
EnglandArgentinaAdvance
41%
59%
England 41%Argentina 59%
What actually happened: 1–2 · ✓ Favourite advanced
3rd Place
07-18 · Miami GardensProjected
FranceEnglandAdvance
50%
50%
France 50%England 50%
What actually happened: 4–6 · ✓ Favourite advanced
Final
07-19 · East RutherfordProjected
SpainArgentinaAdvance
45%
55%
Spain 45%Argentina 55%
What actually happened: 1–0 (after extra time) · ✗ Favourite out
Ensemble: 60% Poisson+Elo / 40% Poisson GLM. Probabilistic model for analysis, not betting advice.