Stage 2 · After Matchday 1

Group Stage Forecast

Matchday 1 results are real. Matchdays 2–3 and the full knockout bracket are predicted, across 20,000 simulations.

Match predictions

Mexico

Elo 1881

06-11

2 – 0

South Africa

Elo 1511

Pre-match prediction

78%

16%

Win 78%Draw 16%Win 6%

Likely2-0

xG2.35–0.51

O 2.554%

BTTS36%

South Korea

Elo 1786

06-11

2 – 1

Czech Republic

Elo 1712

Pre-match prediction

41%

28%

31%

Win 41%Draw 28%Win 31%

Likely1-1

xG1.35–1.14

O 2.545%

BTTS51%

Canada

Elo 1767

06-12

1 – 1

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Elo 1616

Pre-match prediction

60%

25%

14%

Win 60%Draw 25%Win 14%

Likely1-0

xG1.66–0.69

O 2.542%

BTTS41%

Qatar

Elo 1447

06-13

1 – 1

Switzerland

Elo 1865

Pre-match prediction

84%

Win 4%Draw 11%Win 84%

Likely0-2

xG0.52–2.99

O 2.567%

BTTS38%

Brazil

Elo 1978

06-13

1 – 1

Morocco

Elo 1840

Pre-match prediction

42%

30%

29%

Win 42%Draw 30%Win 29%

Likely1-1

xG1.26–0.98

O 2.539%

BTTS44%

Haiti

Elo 1536

06-13

0 – 1

Scotland

Elo 1794

Pre-match prediction

14%

22%

65%

Win 14%Draw 22%Win 65%

Likely0-2

xG0.81–2.02

O 2.553%

BTTS48%

United States

Elo 1780

06-12

4 – 1

Paraguay

Elo 1780

Pre-match prediction

38%

28%

34%

Win 38%Draw 28%Win 34%

Likely1-1

xG1.31–1.23

O 2.547%

BTTS51%

Australia

Elo 1839

06-13

2 – 0

Turkey

Elo 1849

Pre-match prediction

32%

29%

38%

Win 32%Draw 29%Win 38%

Likely1-1

xG1.11–1.23

O 2.542%

BTTS48%

Germany

Elo 1939

06-14

7 – 1

Curaçao

Elo 1427

Pre-match prediction

89%

Win 89%Draw 8%Win 3%

Likely3-0

xG3.44–0.48

O 2.573%

BTTS37%

Ivory Coast

Elo 1743

06-14

1 – 0

Ecuador

Elo 1890

Pre-match prediction

20%

34%

46%

Win 20%Draw 34%Win 46%

Likely0-0

xG0.71–1.2

O 2.530%

BTTS35%

Netherlands

Elo 1944

06-14

2 – 2

Japan

Elo 1910

Pre-match prediction

34%

31%

35%

Win 34%Draw 31%Win 35%

Likely1-1

xG1.08–1.09

O 2.537%

BTTS44%

Sweden

Elo 1755

06-14

5 – 1

Tunisia

Elo 1585

Pre-match prediction

52%

26%

22%

Win 52%Draw 26%Win 22%

Likely1-1

xG1.63–0.98

O 2.548%

BTTS51%

Belgium

Elo 1879

06-15

1 – 1

Egypt

Elo 1711

Pre-match prediction

54%

27%

19%

Win 54%Draw 27%Win 19%

Likely1-0

xG1.51–0.79

O 2.540%

BTTS43%

Iran

Elo 1756

06-15

2 – 2

New Zealand

Elo 1578

Pre-match prediction

58%

25%

16%

Win 58%Draw 25%Win 16%

Likely1-0

xG1.64–0.74

O 2.542%

BTTS42%

Spain

Elo 2129

06-15

0 – 0

Cape Verde

Elo 1606

Pre-match prediction

87%

Win 87%Draw 10%Win 3%

Likely3-0

xG3.05–0.47

O 2.568%

BTTS36%

Saudi Arabia

Elo 1598

06-15

1 – 1

Uruguay

Elo 1870

Pre-match prediction

13%

27%

60%

Win 13%Draw 27%Win 60%

Likely0-1

xG0.62–1.6

O 2.538%

BTTS37%

France

Elo 2084

06-16

3 – 1

Senegal

Elo 1839

Pre-match prediction

56%

25%

19%

Win 56%Draw 25%Win 19%

Likely1-0

xG1.72–0.89

O 2.548%

BTTS48%

Iraq

Elo 1592

06-16

1 – 4

Norway

Elo 1929

Pre-match prediction

20%

72%

Win 9%Draw 20%Win 72%

Likely0-2

xG0.57–2.05

O 2.549%

BTTS38%

Argentina

Elo 2128

06-16

3 – 0

Algeria

Elo 1759

Pre-match prediction

64%

24%

Win 64%Draw 24%Win 11%

Likely1-0

xG1.77–0.56

O 2.541%

BTTS35%

Austria

Elo 1857

06-16

3 – 1

Jordan

Elo 1653

Pre-match prediction

62%

23%

15%

Win 62%Draw 23%Win 15%

Likely1-0

xG1.83–0.78

O 2.548%

BTTS46%

Portugal

Elo 1967

06-17

1 – 1

DR Congo

Elo 1674

Pre-match prediction

61%

26%

13%

Win 61%Draw 26%Win 13%

Likely1-0

xG1.65–0.63

O 2.539%

BTTS38%

Uzbekistan

Elo 1698

06-17

1 – 3

Colombia

Elo 1998

Pre-match prediction

12%

23%

65%

Win 12%Draw 23%Win 65%

Likely0-1

xG0.67–1.86

O 2.546%

BTTS42%

England

Elo 2055

06-17

4 – 2

Croatia

Elo 1881

Pre-match prediction

52%

28%

20%

Win 52%Draw 28%Win 20%

Likely1-0

xG1.47–0.79

O 2.539%

BTTS43%

Ghana

Elo 1557

06-17

1 – 0

Panama

Elo 1683

Pre-match prediction

30%

28%

42%

Win 30%Draw 28%Win 42%

Likely1-1

xG1.1–1.33

O 2.544%

BTTS49%

Projected final standings

Expected points and qualification odds across 20,000 simulations.

Top 2 — advance directlyBest 8 third-placed — wildcard

Group A

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Mexico	7.1	+4.0	99.3%
2	South Korea	5.8	+1.1	95%
3	Czech Republic	2.5	-1.4	49.3%
4	South Africa	1.6	-3.7	19%

Group B

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Canada	4.8	+2.0	91.1%
2	Switzerland	4.6	+1.3	84.4%
3	Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.6	-0.3	69.1%
4	Qatar	2.0	-3.0	23.8%

Group C

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Brazil	5.5	+3.1	95.2%
2	Morocco	5.0	+1.8	89.3%
3	Scotland	4.9	-0.2	85.6%
4	Haiti	0.7	-4.7	6.7%

Group D

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	United States	5.6	+2.8	96.4%
2	Australia	5.7	+2.1	95.1%
3	Turkey	3.0	-1.6	48.2%
4	Paraguay	2.5	-3.3	33.4%

Group E

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Germany	6.3	+6.8	99.8%
2	Ivory Coast	6.2	+1.8	97.9%
3	Ecuador	3.9	+0.9	82.2%
4	Curaçao	0.7	-9.6	2.6%

Group F

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Sweden	4.5	+2.1	93.9%
2	Netherlands	5.4	+2.5	93%
3	Japan	5.3	+2.2	91.8%
4	Tunisia	1.0	-6.8	6.2%

Group G

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Belgium	5.1	+2.2	90.6%
2	Egypt	4.0	+0.4	73%
3	Iran	3.4	-0.4	61.4%
4	New Zealand	2.4	-2.2	32.3%

Group H

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Spain	5.7	+3.2	96.1%
2	Uruguay	3.9	+0.2	75.1%
3	Cape Verde	2.9	-1.2	47.6%
4	Saudi Arabia	2.6	-2.2	42.5%

Group I

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	France	7.1	+4.3	99.6%
2	Norway	5.8	+3.1	98.1%
3	Senegal	3.1	-1.5	56.8%
4	Iraq	1.0	-5.9	7%

Group J

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Argentina	7.7	+6.2	99.9%
2	Austria	5.2	+1.3	94.4%
3	Algeria	3.1	-2.4	51.4%
4	Jordan	1.1	-5.0	11.1%

Group K

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	Colombia	6.5	+3.1	98%
2	Portugal	4.5	+1.2	84.1%
3	DR Congo	3.0	-1.1	50.9%
4	Uzbekistan	1.9	-3.2	26%

Group L

Projected

#	Team	Pts	GD	Qual
1	England	8.0	+5.7	99.9%
2	Croatia	4.3	+0.3	80.9%
3	Ghana	3.9	-2.2	62.9%
4	Panama	1.1	-3.8	12%

Champion odds

Each team's probability of advancing through every knockout round, across 20,000 simulations.

#	Team	RO32	RO16	QF	SF	Final	🏆
1	Argentina	99.9%	74.5%	57.8%	41.5%	27.8%	18.3%
2	Spain	96.1%	61.6%	43.2%	31.1%	19.8%	11.7%
3	France	99.6%	68.8%	43.3%	27.0%	15.7%	8.8%
4	England	99.9%	68.1%	43.2%	25.8%	13.9%	7.7%
5	Colombia	98.0%	66.5%	39.2%	19.9%	10.3%	5.1%
6	Portugal	84.1%	54.6%	30.0%	16.6%	8.9%	4.6%
7	Brazil	95.2%	54.6%	32.1%	17.1%	8.8%	4.4%
8	Germany	99.8%	58.6%	29.7%	16.5%	8.2%	4.0%
9	Netherlands	93.0%	49.9%	30.1%	15.8%	8.0%	3.9%
10	Norway	98.1%	58.4%	32.4%	17.0%	8.3%	3.9%
11	Japan	91.8%	49.1%	28.4%	14.8%	7.2%	3.6%
12	Belgium	90.6%	57.8%	30.2%	13.5%	6.1%	2.7%
13	Mexico	99.3%	63.2%	30.8%	14.0%	6.0%	2.5%
14	Ecuador	82.2%	40.9%	20.9%	9.6%	4.4%	2.2%
15	Morocco	89.3%	44.8%	23.4%	11.2%	5.0%	2.1%
16	Switzerland	84.4%	51.7%	26.2%	11.1%	4.9%	1.9%
17	Austria	94.4%	41.6%	21.3%	10.6%	4.9%	1.9%
18	United States	96.4%	53.8%	22.9%	8.9%	3.6%	1.2%
19	Croatia	80.9%	37.6%	15.5%	7.7%	3.3%	1.2%
20	Australia	95.1%	52.3%	21.3%	8.4%	3.2%	1.1%
21	Uruguay	75.1%	28.5%	13.7%	6.4%	2.9%	1.0%
22	Canada	91.1%	49.0%	21.6%	7.3%	2.6%	0.8%
23	Turkey	48.2%	24.8%	10.0%	4.6%	1.9%	0.8%
24	Ivory Coast	97.9%	36.4%	12.9%	4.9%	1.7%	0.6%
25	Senegal	56.8%	24.0%	11.1%	4.4%	1.8%	0.6%
26	Algeria	51.4%	21.6%	9.8%	3.9%	1.6%	0.6%
27	Scotland	85.6%	34.1%	14.1%	5.1%	1.7%	0.5%
28	Iran	61.4%	29.6%	10.9%	3.6%	1.3%	0.5%
29	South Korea	95.0%	46.3%	16.4%	5.2%	1.7%	0.4%
30	Sweden	93.9%	28.1%	10.3%	3.5%	0.9%	0.3%
31	Paraguay	33.4%	15.2%	5.4%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%
32	Egypt	73.0%	30.6%	9.6%	3.0%	0.8%	0.2%
33	Czech Republic	49.3%	19.8%	7.0%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%
34	Bosnia and Herzegovina	69.1%	22.8%	6.1%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%
35	DR Congo	50.9%	17.6%	5.3%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%
36	South Africa	19.0%	5.1%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
37	Qatar	23.8%	3.6%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
38	Haiti	6.7%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
39	Curaçao	2.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
40	Tunisia	6.2%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
41	New Zealand	32.3%	8.1%	1.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
42	Saudi Arabia	42.5%	7.9%	2.0%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
43	Cape Verde	47.6%	7.8%	1.8%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
44	Iraq	7.0%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
45	Jordan	11.1%	3.0%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
46	Uzbekistan	26.0%	8.3%	2.4%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
47	Panama	12.0%	2.7%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
48	Ghana	62.9%	12.6%	2.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%

The bracket

Actual results where they exist; the single most likely outcome — not just a probability — for everything still to be played.

RO32

06-28 · InglewoodProjected

South Korea

Switzerland

06-29 · FoxboroughProjected

Germany

Scotland

06-29 · GuadalupeProjected

Sweden

Morocco

06-29 · HoustonProjected

Brazil

Netherlands

06-30 · East RutherfordProjected

France

Japan

06-30 · ArlingtonProjected

Ivory Coast

Norway

06-30 · Mexico CityProjected

Mexico

Ecuador

07-01 · Santa ClaraProjected

United States

Bosnia and Herzegovina

07-01 · SeattleProjected

Belgium

Algeria

07-01 · AtlantaProjected

England

Senegal

07-02 · TorontoProjected

Portugal

Croatia

07-02 · InglewoodProjected

Spain

Austria

07-02 · VancouverProjected

Canada

Iran

07-03 · Miami GardensProjected

Argentina

Uruguay

07-03 · ArlingtonProjected

Australia

Egypt

07-03 · Kansas CityProjected

Colombia

Ghana

RO16

07-04 · PhiladelphiaProjected

Germany

France

07-04 · HoustonProjected

Switzerland

Morocco

07-05 · East RutherfordProjected

Brazil

Norway

07-05 · Mexico CityProjected

Mexico

England

07-06 · ArlingtonProjected

Portugal

Spain

07-06 · SeattleProjected

United States

Belgium

07-07 · AtlantaProjected

Argentina

Australia

07-07 · VancouverProjected

Canada

Colombia

QF

07-09 · BostonProjected

France

Morocco

07-10 · InglewoodProjected

Spain

Belgium

07-11 · Miami GardensProjected

Brazil

England

07-11 · Kansas CityProjected

Argentina

Colombia

SF

07-14 · ArlingtonProjected

France

Spain

07-15 · AtlantaProjected

England

Argentina

3rd Place

07-18 · Miami GardensProjected

France

England

Final

07-19 · East RutherfordProjected

Spain

Argentina

Ensemble: 60% Poisson+Elo / 40% Poisson GLM. Probabilistic model for analysis, not betting advice.